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NEWS: Analyst Sees DVD Sales Decline


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Beatdigga



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:55 pm Reply with quote
Of course, there's the unknown variable of next-gen formats.
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Advent_Nebula



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 3:01 pm Reply with quote
Yet stores like Suncoast and Media Play will always cater to niche markets, Hell the Suncoast in the mall I live buy did an Anime theme for Holloween.
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Zac
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 3:41 pm Reply with quote
...Did nobody tell ICv2 that DVD sales have been in decline for about a year? Sales growth for 2005 was cut in half from last year. Retailers and studios alike are bracing for impact.
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Cowpunk



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 3:58 pm Reply with quote
It will be interesting to see how anime sales go in comparison to the DVD market as a whole.

This year there will be over 800 anime titles released, up a bit from last year. However revenue and the number of titles released are not the same.

If the anime market stays flat it will be doing better than the DVD market as a whole, which could be a good thing for fans.
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vherub



Joined: 12 Nov 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 5:11 pm Reply with quote
It is tough to predict what affect the coming boom of hdtv sets will have on dvds in general as well as anime in particular. New higher quality transfers make double dipping more tolerable if you suddenyl have a much nicer tv set to show the difference off. Throw in extras like director's commentary, booklets, and already released barebone dvds could easily be re-released. Then again, the maturation of the market could follow the cd pattern with studios increasingly berating consumers for pirating and declaring drm the only solution. sigh...

I think the current trend to digipack a season is much more intelligent than the single volume release not only to box stores but consumers as well. Simpsons, Seinfeld, or Family Guy would not nearly have sold as well if they were released as single discs. And this could very well play havok with the already difficult task of tracking anime dvd sales.
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Hi no Neko



Joined: 17 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 5:18 pm Reply with quote
Advent_Nebula wrote:
Yet stores like Suncoast and Media Play will always cater to niche markets, Hell the Suncoast in the mall I live buy did an Anime theme for Holloween.


Exactly. Most of the time, when I hear about people buying anime DVDs, names like Target and Wal-Mart don't come up. Anime fans get most of their anime from mall outlets like Suncoast, who are perfectly willing to cater to their loyal niches.

Heck, an anime fan could probably spend all their lottery winnings inside one mall. DVDs from Suncoast, manga from Waldenbooks, and countless merchandise and clothes from Hot Topic.

Personally, my theory is that anime DVD sales will stay level, and maybe drop a tad, for a while, then start shooting up. Why? Because a lot of anime fans are in their mid-teens. They grow up, get out of school, get jobs, and will suddenly have a lot more money to spend on DVDs than they would with, say, a $5-a-week allowance.

Just a theory, but I wouldn't be suprised.
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Strategos



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:52 pm Reply with quote
Hi no Neko wrote:
Personally, my theory is that anime DVD sales will stay level, and maybe drop a tad, for a while, then start shooting up. Why? Because a lot of anime fans are in their mid-teens. They grow up, get out of school, get jobs, and will suddenly have a lot more money to spend on DVDs than they would with, say, a $5-a-week allowance.

Just a theory, but I wouldn't be suprised.


That is my line of thinking as well. The very late 90's early 00's anime popularity growth was from 12-17 year olds, who in a couple years (at least the older part) will start getting real jobs and will possible have a little extra cash to spend on anime DVD's and other merchandise.
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Super Arrow



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 7:24 pm Reply with quote
I think this calls for a better Episode-to-Disc Ratio then. Wink

And UMD will flop. I guarantee it.
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Demaar



Joined: 29 May 2004
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:13 pm Reply with quote
Blu-ray/HD DVD will bring higher episode to disc ratios without sacrificing quality. I reckon then will be when the good times roll.
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darkhunter



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:29 pm Reply with quote
I'm predicting by that time, fansub has pretty much caught up dvd release in term of accessibility, as more people are downloading anime than ever. More people will have broadband connection too as prices go down.
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Beatdigga



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:00 pm Reply with quote
darkhunter wrote:
I'm predicting by that time, fansub has pretty much caught up dvd release in term of accessibility, as more people are downloading anime than ever. More people will have broadband connection too as prices go down.


In an interview with Newsweek, I believe it was, the original creator of the DVD was quoted as saying eventually people wouldn't have physical copies of programs as they could all be downloaded instantanously.

Perhaps fansubbing is a sign of things to come?
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one3rd



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:13 pm Reply with quote
Demaar wrote:
Blu-ray/HD DVD will bring higher episode to disc ratios without sacrificing quality. I reckon then will be when the good times roll.


Blu-ray/HD DVD can bring higher episode to disc ratios without sacrificing quality. And you should then expect each disc to cost more. Actually, it would end up costing more per episode than it does now if the production costs are high enough. And there's no guarantee that these HD formats will even succeed. I don't think it's a good time for it. A lot of people still aren't done converting all of their VHS tapes to DVDs. I don't think a lot of people are going to be willing to convert to a new format so soon. I certainly don't want to. And the only way to truly take advantage of the HD formats would be to buy an expensive new player and an expensive new TV to go with it. That's definitely not an investment that I want to make for a marginal increase in quality. The movie industry would love a new format though because their back catalog sales are decreasing because most people have jumped on the DVD train. A new format would mean they can re-sell those old titles again. The industry is really spoiled on these back catalog sales. They'll have to learn eventually that people don't always want to buy the same thing five times.
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darkhunter



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:45 pm Reply with quote
Demaar wrote:
Blu-ray/HD DVD will bring higher episode to disc ratios without sacrificing quality. I reckon then will be when the good times roll.


Keep in mind that putting more episode per disc would also raise the cost of selling. Companies always need to break even with the cost of licensing.

Funimation try selling Fruit Basket at 7 episode on dvd for like 50MRSP, but it fail badly and they reduce it to the normal 30MSRP, thus funimation never tried that experiement again.
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Anthony P



Joined: 27 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 1:40 pm Reply with quote
Beatdigga wrote:
darkhunter wrote:
I'm predicting by that time, fansub has pretty much caught up dvd release in term of accessibility, as more people are downloading anime than ever. More people will have broadband connection too as prices go down.


In an interview with Newsweek, I believe it was, the original creator of the DVD was quoted as saying eventually people wouldn't have physical copies of programs as they could all be downloaded instantanously.

Perhaps fansubbing is a sign of things to come?


I'm no expert here, but I think if distribution companies ever catch savvy, they'll pick up the rights to an anime as soon as it's released in Japan and offer pay-per-downloads. That would be a good way to combat fansubbing.
Music has already began to go the way of pay-per-download. I believe that eventually, "hard-copy" releases will either be phased out entirely or become a collector's market.

Zac wrote:
...Did nobody tell ICv2 that DVD sales have been in decline for about a year? Sales growth for 2005 was cut in half from last year. Retailers and studios alike are bracing for impact.

Yep. It's because of the same reason that theater attendance has been on a decline; the overall quality of American film is going downhill. The drop shouldn't effect anime much (aside from some retailer's inclusion of it in their inventory), people that buy anime are seeking it out to begin with.
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Keonyn
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Joined: 25 May 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 1:54 pm Reply with quote
I don't think hard copies will ever completely fade. Many people want a transportable solid copy of their media. Their secure and not prone to hardware failure and can be run anywhere on any machine with nothing more than that single copy. Not to mention some people just prefer to have something tangible, including case, inserts and included artwork.

Not to mention the internet technology that would be required to move that much data is not even close to being in place yet. We're talking the next infrastructure which isn't predicted to happen for another 10 years, longer if the satellite companies get their way. Fansubs are not the future, they're pirated copies and are stolen materials and if anything they will only damage the future, not improve it.
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