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ultimatehaki



Joined: 27 Oct 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:34 pm Reply with quote
That's pretty much how I figured they determined these things. One thing that wasn't mentioned tho, do they also take into account any pre-orders? Like before the printing even starts?
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mgosdin



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:02 pm Reply with quote
My friends in the Model Train business have the same sorts of issues, in their case virtually everything is being made in China. They most definitely use pre-orders to gauge demand, the flip side of that being when a highly anticipated model release is canceled because the pre-order numbers are too low.

Mark Gosdin
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angelmcazares
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:04 pm Reply with quote
I don't doubt that a few years back selling anime on disc was more complicated for publishers. But hasn't legal streaming and online stores significantly helped publishers when deciding how many discs to produce? Legal streaming helps publishers to determine what could be a good (or bad) seller.

And other than Funimation having their own store, most publishers sell their discs through Amazon and Right Stuf. From what I know the Right Stuf is very accommodating to anime publishers. They sell Aniplex USA titles exclusively, have a distribution deal wiith Sunrise and apparently publish discs for Sentai. I imagine that things like brick and mortal stores space and warehouse fees are not a big problem if you work with Right Stuf.
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zrnzle500



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:21 pm Reply with quote
angelmcazares wrote:
I don't doubt that a few years back selling anime on disc was more complicated for publishers. But hasn't legal streaming and online stores significantly helped publishers when deciding how many discs to produce? Legal streaming helps publishers to determine what could be a good (or bad) seller.


For big hits or misses probably, but for anything in the middle or has a lot of buzz for negative reasons, I don't know that streaming numbers would offer much direction. Hand Shakers probably gets plenty of traffic, but will people buy it? Trainwrecks aside, I've certainly seen shows that I enjoyed watching but probably wouldn't watch again let alone buy. And then there is the segment of fans who only watch stuff after the season, streaming or even just physical releases. So streaming numbers at least as they air don't really tell you about what that segment will buy, though that will be influenced to some extent by what shows had positive buzz when they were airing. Streaming numbers are certainly a factor considered, and probably doesn't hurt, but they probably don't make it much easier in most cases, if those missed forecasts mentioned at the end of the article are any indication.
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Shiroi Hane
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:26 pm Reply with quote
This is where the US has it good.. over in the UK there are BD releases that haven't happened (or have even been cancelled partway through like Xam'd) because sales (expected or actual) are below the minimum order number for BDs. Then there's the odd DVD release that have infamously sold in double or even single figures.
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angelmcazares
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:42 pm Reply with quote
zrnzle500 wrote:
I don't know that streaming numbers would offer much direction. Hand Shakers probably gets plenty of traffic, but will people buy it? Trainwrecks aside, I've certainly seen shows that I enjoyed watching but probably wouldn't watch again let alone buy.

Based on the underlined text you seem to be very selective when it comes to buying anime discs. I am also selective and buy like 2 shows from a season, but I get the impression that many of the fans who buy anime discs are not selective. And I am not saying that streaming numbers are the most important indicator of disc sales, but I imagine they are very important for publishers.

Quote:
Streaming numbers are certainly a factor considered, and probably doesn't hurt, but they probably don't make it much easier in most cases, if those missed forecasts mentioned at the end of the article are any indication.

Perhaps I need to do more digging, but other than Phi Brain discs offered at bargain prices at Right Stuff and NISA's Toradora! dubbed LE selling like hot cakes, I am not aware of that many missed forecasts recently.
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zrnzle500



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:11 pm Reply with quote
angelmcazares wrote:
zrnzle500 wrote:
I don't know that streaming numbers would offer much direction. Hand Shakers probably gets plenty of traffic, but will people buy it? Trainwrecks aside, I've certainly seen shows that I enjoyed watching but probably wouldn't watch again let alone buy.

Based on the underlined text you seem to be very selective when it comes to buying anime discs. I am also selective and buy like 2 shows from a season, but I get the impression that many of the fans who buy anime discs are not selective. And I am not saying that streaming numbers are the most important indicator of disc sales, but I imagine they are very important for publishers.


Well given how many shows I've watched or even how many I watch per season (~30 new shows) I have neither the money or space not to be selective with my purchases.

Those that only watch discs are perhaps less selective when it comes to buying shows (in the sense that they might buy enjoyable shows that streamers might pass on owning), but from what I've seen on this site, they are more selective when it comes to watching, letting those that keep up with the current season sort the wheat from the chaff.

Streaming numbers are probably important and valued by publishers, but probably not a panacea.
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Яeverse



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:56 pm Reply with quote
Which anime are out of stock in week 1?

How does this article explain why I've not seen owari no serafu collectors edition on sale anymore? However i still see naruto and bleach boxsets on sale.
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talbot_md



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:44 pm Reply with quote
DVD and even Blu-Ray duplication packaging is very cheap when done in volume, even when done in the USA. Doing it in China has to be even cheaper. I bet that the risk isn't in how many are made, but the risk of warehouse space and shipping to stores vs. returns. With DVDs, once you are over 1,000 copies; each disc. For example, I just googled a DVD replication service and found you can make 1,000 DVDs in a case for $0.81 each ,or about $1.23 w/ nice inserts and booklet. The cost goes down to $0.68 for 10,000 quantity and $0.80 for a nice 8-page color booklet in the package w/ the DVD.

BluRay cost about $2.50/disk in 2,000 quantity - that includes a $0.55/disc licensing fee.

These are USA prices for 10 day productionn w/ complete packaging- prices in China with months of notice are much lower I'm sure.
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dragonrider_cody



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:20 pm Reply with quote
angelmcazares wrote:


And other than Funimation having their own store, most publishers sell their discs through Amazon and Right Stuf. From what I know the Right Stuf is very accommodating to anime publishers. They sell Aniplex USA titles exclusively, have a distribution deal wiith Sunrise and apparently publish discs for Sentai. I imagine that things like brick and mortal stores space and warehouse fees are not a big problem if you work with Right Stuf.


Sentai uses Ruth Stuf as their warehouse, and they also use them for fulfillment for their online store. But Right Stuf doesn't actually publish their discs. Furthermore, the Sentai discs that pop up at retail stores are handled by third party wholesalers, like Ingram, Baker and Taylor and others. Generally, they market those titles to FYE, Best Buy, Walmart, and others (for both online and retail sales.). Though interestingly enough, before Best Buy consolidated the number of wholesalers it dealt with, Right Stuf discs at Best Buy were shipped to them by ADV.

Focusing on online sales has definitely made things easier, especially for the smaller publishers like Sentai and Discotek. Online retailers value a high degree of variety, so send backs are relatively rare (other than for defective or recalled discs.). Plus, the number of locations being shipped to is considerably less. They may only ship to a handful of Amazon warehouses, as opposed to thousands of Walmart stores or even hundreds of FYE stores. Not to mention, with such uncertainty in the B&M sector, you have a lot less exposure to things like store closures, product markdowns, and retail bankruptcies.

Online streams can be a decent indicator of what will sell and what won't. But it's no guarantee. There have been home video releases with strong online stream numbers that didn't meet sales expectations, so nothing is certain. Most haven't been huge misses, but they still happen. But other than seeing series get dropped, getting dubs dropped, or having huge numbers of marked down volumes, it's hard to tell when something is a flop or not. Plus, there is a difference between being a flop, and simply not meeting expectations. Azumnga Daioh is the classic example. It did well, but didn't hit the numbers that's ADV expected based on online activity, and may not have warranted the cost they paid for it.


Last edited by dragonrider_cody on Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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WingKing



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:51 pm Reply with quote
dragonrider_cody wrote:
Furthermore, the Sentai discs that pop up at retail stores are handled by third party wholesalers, like Ingram, Lord and Taylor and others.


I assume you were thinking of Baker & Taylor. Lord and Taylor is a department store chain. But I'm very familiar with Baker & Taylor because they also do a lot of business as a public library vendor; my library system buys most of our books from them (although we get our DVDs from Midwest Tape, not B&T).
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Dfens



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:18 pm Reply with quote
I watch on average 6-8 shows per season sometime even more depending if their a show that catches my eye. But with more work than ever and not enough time to re-watch older shows I just can't buy everything I remotely liked anymore.

Now I only purchase shows I love to death and want to re-watch when I have free time so even though my income keeps going up I have been really cutting back on my collecting.

Publishers still have to worry about making too many discs because retailers can return them for a full refund for any reason even if they are not selling. And their have to take them back even if they don't want to.

The thing with streaming even if the numbers are high only a certain percentage of the viewers will actually go out and purchase the show, most will watch it and have no desire to watch it again or own it.

Яeverse a show selling out in a week after release can happen it's rare but does happen. To give a example Strike the Blood on Blu-Ray/DVD sold out on release date because the number of pre-orders was higher than the number of discs pressed. I had to wait over 6 weeks before RightStuf got another shipment in and sent out my copy.

As for Owari no Serafu Collectors Edition Funimation only made a small number or those sets and once they sold out that was it, so their isn't ever going to be a restock again. Your best bet is to buy one on Ebay for a rip off price.

Those Naruto and Bleach sets you mentioned are huge franchises and they printed too many of them and they are tons collecting dust in a warehouse so that's why they are still around.


Last edited by Dfens on Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:43 pm; edited 2 times in total
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dragonrider_cody



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:16 pm Reply with quote
WingKing wrote:
dragonrider_cody wrote:
Furthermore, the Sentai discs that pop up at retail stores are handled by third party wholesalers, like Ingram, Lord and Taylor and others.


I assume you were thinking of Baker & Taylor. Lord and Taylor is a department store chain. But I'm very familiar with Baker & Taylor because they also do a lot of business as a public library vendor; my library system buys most of our books from them (although we get our DVDs from Midwest Tape, not B&T).


Thanks, you are correct. After Best Buy consolidated suppliers, Sentai discs started arriving from Ingram, as did Media Blasters for a time.
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Random Name



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:04 am Reply with quote
zrnzle500 wrote:

For big hits or misses probably, but for anything in the middle or has a lot of buzz for negative reasons, I don't know that streaming numbers would offer much direction. Hand Shakers probably gets plenty of traffic, but will people buy it?
I plan on buying the home release I am enjoying hand shakers. My point being most people watch streams because they like the show and only a minority to hate on.
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zrnzle500



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:40 am Reply with quote
^Generally speaking yes, but if the ratings are any indication, here and pretty much every where else (including on CR itself), I'm not sure that is true for this show. People don't watch shows they don't enjoy, but you can enjoy things for being bad and not just for being good.
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