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Richard J. wrote:

However, probably the smartest thing would be if the Japanese themselves would release English subtitled downloads for purchase as the episodes air on their TV. (Yeah, this is not going to happen, but you've got to admit it would be a pretty cool thing and likely it would generate a decent income.)

On a lighter note, I'd definitely shy away from that, even if a non-DRM'd, non-OS specific version was available.

Why? I simply don't trust their English. Razz

Man, this reminds me of "Star Wars Episode III: The Backstroke of the West"

Anime hyper

starcade wrote:

Why not? It's the only way that fansubbing and piracy is going to end is if the American market comes under the _direct control_ of the Japanese -- and this is basically how they'd have to do it. Simultaneous release and the subtitles.

It's not actually something that would work. First, it would cost a lot (people don't realize it because the fansubbers are willing to do it sort of for free, but translating, subbing, and all of that would actually cost quite a bit.)

Second, the fansubbers would still make their subtitled version. They've convinced some people that they are better at it than everyone else.

starcade wrote:

Of course, this might put the American VAs out of business, but...

Nah, there's still quite the fanbase for English dubs. In fact, if the Japanese could get more money prior to a licensing deal, they might actually cut their prices a bit.

starcade wrote:

I mean, here's the main diff between anime and the music industry: The reason CD sales have tanked is because the payola that is put forth on the radio today _STINKS_. STINKS OUT LOUD.

Considering that I only like a very small portion of today's music, I can't argue this one too much. Still, some of it sells very well.

starcade wrote:

Anime, you can't say that about -- and not all the "good stuff" (no matter how you define that term) is licensed. Unless the Japanese want to say "You get nothing until this problem is solved..."

While it's a highly subjective concept, I do agree that there is a lot of "good stuff" that hasn't been licensed and that I'd actually like to see the Japanese take a bit more of a role in helping to get more out to other countries. However, the purchasing base here makes any release a risk and making the release cheaper (by having it mono-lingual or with no extras) often cuts down on the overall sales.

This came up at comic-con......Can't remember the panel-Viz? The argument being there's still the issue of translating so it won't ever be exactly the same.
And the downloaders don't care. Most I speak with give up buying stuff for free downloading because it's free & they're starving students.
Yet they have the bucks for whatever else-beer, fast food, ciggies, premium coffee. My teen dropped $1500 at Comic-con. She was totally shocked working New Year's Eve this year seeing the amount people were spending on liquor-one guy dropped $1000 on sale prices. That guy apparently felt he needed that liquor. My teen wanted all the stuff she bought. All those downloaders are spending the money they aren't spending on anime on other things.
And it comes down to "Why can't your release TITLE X every month! It's too long to wait!" But not everyone reads only 1 title-I read dozens Yeah. I'd love to see certain titles come out more often, but my pocketbook is satisfied the way things are.
A lot of the downloaders even seem a bit jaded. As Don McLean sang-:The more you pay, the more it's worth". I pay my hard-earned cash for anime, I look for stuff to like about it. Downloaders get it for free & seem to hate most of it. This one's no good. That one goes south fast. They seem to go gaga over one or 2 titles every season (& they're usually not titles that appeal to me once they're licensed. Everyone was crazy about Genshiken but I'll take Comic Party)

Yen Press hit on this when they announced their goal of closing the gap between British & North American releases--where they can, they plan to release the same month, though this means they won't be localizing the English. The issue is by the time many of these titles are avaiable in England, the fans have imported the North American version because the lag time is months. This is a different issue since the issue, short of us all learning Japanese(as Yen Press joked) is an exisiting version in the English language being held up for licensing issues vs a copy exisitng in the original language someone may or may not have translated into fansubs in one;'s own language

Richard J. wrote:

Seriously, why can't so-called fans just buy the DVDs, CDs, or whatever. Supposedly they do actually like these things.

Im gonna guess that it's due to the fact that the process of buying something usually is comprised of exchanging Money for said goods. You know...Money? That green stuff that we DONT have an infinite supply of? You act like the only difference between downloading and buying is that you gotta drive to the store.

I agree with the fact that people should try and support the industry and buy DVDs. However clearly there are reasons people download. Its ridiculous to act like people could easilly just buy the DVDs and fix the problem.

Tempest: I cant speak for kokuryu so I cant say what he meant in his post however the way I interpret it, I think alot of what youre saying supports it. Maybe he is making the mistake of saying that sales crash because of takedown notices. However, I think that patter is noticable because there is a connection. Its not so much because of takedown notices, but because that is all the companies are doing. As you said:

Quote:

This can be said for the anime industry, online piracy (fansubs and DVD rips) are really hurting them. Takedown notices aren't having much effect in stopping the piracy, but at the same time, the companies need to send them out from time to time to provide a sort of balance. But their future lies in finding ways to earn money despite the free online availability (see my recent blog post for one aspect of this). TV, merchandise, online sales, added value DVDs, VOD, these are all part of the equation, but minimizing piracy will also be part of the equation.

Can I get a link to that blog post? It sounds interesting.

Theyre never going to stop downloads so if a companies only solution is to try and do so, youre doomed. The future lies in trying to adapt. I certainly think they should take some steps to try and cut down on piracy. However, going on an all out war against piracy to try and solve the problem will not work and probably make things a bit worse. As you said:

Quote:

(Don't get me wrong, I dislike the strongarm tactics of the RIAA and the MPAA, and I think those organizations, are a part of the problem)

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One big fear is that if companies decide to no longer put up with fansubers, they'll just end up driving fans to complete pirates like Pirates Bay. At least with major fansub sites, the downloads stop when the title is licensed.

I guess youre still not saying this is the main cause, but when you agree that overly agressive anti-download efforts can cause problems. I don't see how you can call what kokuryu is saying is stupid (which is really totally uncalled for in any case, especially when you also imply that he's ignorant and just repeating something he heard somewhere.)

ikillchicken wrote:

Theyre never going to stop downloads so if a companies only solution is to try and do so, youre doomed. The future lies in trying to adapt. I certainly think they should take some steps to try and cut down on piracy. However, going on an all out war against piracy to try and solve the problem will not work and probably make things a bit worse.

Actually, I see a 50:50 chance that the copyright holders will win this war in the end. The price we'll have to pay will be our civil liberties. What we'll get for certain (or already have) is something like a ban of encryption technology for the private user, a ban of anti hacking tools to protect yourself, and routine monitoring of internet communication.

Already today it's illegal to modify software or even hardware you legally own (Well, in the case of software you don't "own" anything anymore anyway. Microsoft just grants you the right to use it.) All that, ironically, in the name of property rights.

The question is only how effective this will be.

It's going to be a long "war" against piracy but we're now seeing companies form a defense against it. Example - GDH Opens GONZO DOGA on YouTube Japan. In the press release it states that:

G.D.H. will also monitor and request removal of G.D.H. group companies' material found outside of Gonzo DOGA on YouTube Japan pages which are posted without authorization. In this effort to eliminate unofficial content from YouTube, G.D.H. will work with Google to seek out how best to manage traffic of user-posted videos of Gonzo titles.

As it may be a small step as there still is a good chunk of piracy going on, it may just keep something maintained @ YouTube Japan and perhaps may set new standards for YouTube available for United States viewers.

ikillchicken wrote:

Can I get a link to that blog post? It sounds interesting.

Click on views (or press V) then click on blocks.

It seems a lot of people understood where I was coming from. I have been watching (and helping) the general Anime industry in the US for over 20 years now, as well as other industries. And the one thing that I have noticed is that most companies and industries fail to take on thing into account - consumer trends and what the consumer wants and instead focuses on cramming their version of what they think the consumer wants.

Secondarily, in today's day and age, every movie/tv company thinks that they will generate the types of insane sales that used to exist back in the 1970s. But they missed one big thing. Back in the 1970s, everything used to be free for original air TV runs, baseball and basketball games, with no such thing as "blackouts", and regional items aired regionally, creating the overall fanbase.

Much the same, the anime shows that everyone in Japan goes to stores to buy, they watch on TV first, except for OVAs, and have also had the advantage of reading the manga for months or years as well. In other countries, the only inkling we have of whats to come is the fansub base - which is re-producing the on-air shows for everyone to watch, and the scanlation base - which provides them with the manga, well it used to be years before commercial releases, but now they are really on top of getting the newer manga out quicker commercially. And for those that also bash the DVD ripping fansub groups - I dont particularly like them, especially when they rip the actual English releases and use the DVDs own subtitles - but they have been responsible for many JDrama and KDrama series getting licensed outside their original countries. The free airings of the shows is what is generating the actual market.

Now many people have also ripped into the fansubbers in general. I am sure many people who are actually IN the anime industry know this already, but several of the most popular fansub and raw providers are actually (a) TV networks, (b) large multinational corporations, (c) the manga artist themselves and a group of their friends, (d) the anime production companies, (e) the anime licensee. WHAT? you say. Some of them KNOW what they need to do to generate the market they want. Many of them use the fansub market as a litmus test to see if something should be release commercially or not outside of Japan.

But, overall, the name of the game is adapt to the changing world, or face the consequences. As a few have mentioned already, the wave of the future is in direct downloads of videos - whether you own them in the end, or just watch them once. I point to The Anime Network as a prime example of that. For those that may not have known, TAN has been available on the Akimbo video download service for quite some time now - as well as AnimEigo and MangaManga and a few other companies.

Now as far as manga downloads - I dont know that is going to be accepted - I find it annoying to read the scanlations online, its a little better if you have the files locally on your computer, but I would rather have the book in my hand - you can read it much better, quicker (it takes several hours just to read one book online) and anywhere you want. I think trying to view it on a cellphone would be even worse. But that may be just me - there seems to be a large fanbase that is looking forward to receiving manga on the cellphone...

The other things that are hurting the anime/manga industry as a whole is the gap between the original Japanese releases and the international releases, the sheer length of time it takes to put out the next volume of anything (you have to remember, we dont have the weekly manga books being released here in the US - and if they did, they would probably charge $25 a pop, rather than the $5 it costs in Japan), the sheer volume of titles being produced internationally (too many to buy), the limited release time of the titles (have to keep them in production for at least 25 years - we have been in the dark that long, its gonna take a long time to catch up!), and the fact the practically every international economy is in a downswing so money is tight. I dont care about the paper quality used in the manga, I just want to read it - use newsprint but get the manga out at an affordable price like they do in Japan! Also the DVD titles are just too expensive! Have you seen how much the 2nd volume of Galaxy Angel Rune is? $50! When the average "Hollywood" DVD runs $20 to $25 when first released, and can be found in bargin bins for under $8, the prices need an adjustment...

Alright, enough of my ranting! As usual, you are welcome to agree or disagree with anything I say!

kokuryu wrote:

Secondarily, in today's day and age, every movie/tv company thinks that they will generate the types of insane sales that used to exist back in the 1970s. But they missed one big thing. Back in the 1970s, everything used to be free for original air TV runs, baseball and basketball games, with no such thing as "blackouts", and regional items aired regionally, creating the overall fanbase.

Much the same, the anime shows that everyone in Japan goes to stores to buy, they watch on TV first, except for OVAs, and have also had the advantage of reading the manga for months or years as well. In other countries, the only inkling we have of whats to come is the fansub base - which is re-producing the on-air shows for everyone to watch, and the scanlation base - which provides them with the manga, well it used to be years before commercial releases, but now they are really on top of getting the newer manga out quicker commercially. And for those that also bash the DVD ripping fansub groups - I don't particularly like them, especially when they rip the actual English releases and use the DVDs own subtitles - but they have been responsible for many JDrama and KDrama series getting licensed outside their original countries. The free airings of the shows is what is generating the actual market.

We lacked the technology to record shows in the '70's. It was all disposable. There's the whole-actors in the '60's got ripped off because no one ever dreamed of the syndication market so residuals kicked out after 6 airings or something. Nowadays actors get a piece of the home video market-the titels aired in the 70's & 60's no one dreamed of any home market exisiting.
I paid $800 for my first VCR in 1984. I paid $500 for my first cd player a couple yrs later. Yes there were recorders in the late 70's that cost $2000 so the average family couldn'rt afford one.

Quote:

Back in the 1970s, everything used to be free for original air TV runs, baseball and basketball games

You sound like an adult. You know nothing's free. I iknew tv wasn't free & I turned 10 in 1970--commercials paid the bill. Sports sponsors. Memorabilia I bought-that Star Wars t-shirt.

Why do downloaders have the idea they have the inalienable right to download? I paid to see I Now Pronopunce You Chuck & Larry on Tuesday & the Simpsons Movie on Wednesday. Other movies I just wait until they come out on dvd-like Fantastic Four which I will buy without having previewed.

Because, you see, in the 70's we actually bought records after only hearing one or 2 songs on the radio-if that many. If I liked Queen, I would probably be in the record store the day the album was released buying my copy to run home & listen to endlessly. We didn't have to hear every frigging track. Like Steven King-if I like his writing, I'd buy his book. We didn't have Barnes & Noble with comfy chairs to sit & read the entire book--we bought the book & took it home to read. We didn't imagine we could preview the entire thing in the store. Maybe some record stores had preview booths, but not the Tower Records in my area which did such things as have bands show up to sign records at the store to induce us to buy the record.

Your rose-colored glasses are a tad too rosey.

One of the biggest changes in the market seems to be less brand loyalty. If you liked Frampton, you bought his album. Now it seems more people don't want the whole album--they want the greatest hits. My husband was a greatest hits sort of guy. I'm more find the hidden gem never released as a single off the album. Short attention span or something. Nowadays kids seem to get bored faster than we did with acts.

Dargonxtc wrote:

Whew, okay now that that is over, I don't know how this news sparked a fansub debate. But does anyone know an answer to my original question.

tempest wrote:

Taking a look at the numbers, I would assume Japan only. And anime (TV sales, DVD sales, theatrical tickets) only, we're not talking merch, licensing, etc... This is an educated guess though. I'll explain why.

In short, "It's only $2 billion, Japan + International would be much more."

North American Anime DVD sales are worth somewhere around $600 million a year. The total North American anime/manga industry is worth somewhere around $5 billion (video games, tv, dvd, manga, merch, etc...) and the Japanese market is much, much larger.

Obviously it doesn't include manga sales, which are almost a trillion yen a year.

But let's not trust my speculation here. I'll ask Tadashi and get back to you shortly.

Tadashi Sudo of Anime!Anime! wrote:

This market is the most in the narrow sense.

Retail DVD sales,theatrical ticket sales and TV revenues and revenue
from internet viewers.

Quote:

Now many people have also ripped into the fansubbers in general. I am sure many people who are actually IN the anime industry know this already, but several of the most popular fansub and raw providers are actually (a) TV networks, (b) large multinational corporations, (c) the manga artist themselves and a group of their friends, (d) the anime production companies, (e) the anime licensee. WHAT? you say. Some of them KNOW what they need to do to generate the market they want. Many of them use the fansub market as a litmus test to see if something should be release commercially or not outside of Japan.

In large part that's unadulterated non-sense. The Japanese business world (especially outside of giants like Sony) is an insular one, well known for missing/miss-handling many foreign opportunities. You can look at recent 'micro' examples, such as Bandai Visual's odd market/pricing tactics, to the long standing 'macro' trends, such as treating the entire US/NA market like something the tide washed in (with large licensing fee's and byzantine regulation, something to leech a few yen off of and nothing more), rather then a hungry audience which also happens to be the richest in the world. If an American product/entertainment becomes popular in an affluent foreign country, whole company divisions are put in gear to take advantage of this situation. In Japan it's taken them a decade to finally start making small foreign market concessions that may save their own domestic market.

Yet from your post, it appears from the biggest Japanese corporate sponsor to the smallest manga author and animator, the Japanese anime/manga industry is so aggressive and foreign-business savvy they are purposely seeding material and analyzing every reaction. Hooey.

(Bonus point- DVD sales have become virtually stagnant over the past few years, even as fan-subbing increases in exposure. Except for a few 'no-brainer' hits, many popular fan-sub shows have meet with DVD sales flops. Hmm, could there be a connection?
Meanwhile, the new Volvos just came in to the dealership, I going to go steal one (or 'sample' as fan-subbers say) to see if there any good. They cost a lot of money so I want to be sure, and if it's good maybe I'll buy one down the road. The Volvo folks should be cool with that, I'm their customer base and am helping them gauge the market. right?)

Thanks Tempest!

That in a way makes it even more disturbing that the trend is blamed on Pokemon, Digimon, Gendo. Although with Gendo, that really wouldn't explain the last three years.

I guess I am just confused/concerned. The reports numbers make it sound like a good thing, especially for the last three years. Yet the language seems like it is brushing it off as nothing more than a fluke and that the market growth even with positive numbers is stagnet or even poor.

Dargonxtc wrote:

I guess I am just confused/concerned. The reports numbers make it sound like a good thing, especially for the last three years. Yet the language seems like it is brushing it off as nothing more than a fluke and that the market growth even with positive numbers is stagnet or even poor.

That bothers me too. We keep hearing that the Japanese industry isn't all that healthy, but the sales obviously are up.

But so is production, look at the quantity of shows on TV. It could be that the per show sales average is low. Which would be similar to the North American manga industry in 2004/2005. Total sales were double the previous year, but the number of skus was quadruple.

Anyways, I'm going to try to dig into this, I trust the people who tell me that not all is good in anime-land, but I'd like to have that qualitative information and this quantitative info put into proper context.

-t

Deleted.

Spoke to a few people, and my supposition was basically right. The market has grown by about 50% since 2000, but the number of titles has grown more significantly (about 100%).

In order to compete, companies have increased their production budgets (look at how many times companies like GDH have talked about per-episode budgets in the past couple years, with frequent boasts of "most expensive ever").

So, the result, 50% more sales, split between 100% more shows = -25% sales per show average. Add in the higher productions costs, and the bottom line is looking very grim indeed.

In fact, given the typical profit margin in competitive markets (anime is most definitely competitive), it looks like the average anime probably loses money in the Japanese market. Hence the importance of foreign licensing and secondary income (merch).

Companies with mega-blockbusters might be enjoying the growing market, but the guys in the middle (like GDH, which has posted very bad financial results) and the bottom aren't doing so well.

-t

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