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What do you think would happen to anime a few years from now


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axeldem



Joined: 27 Sep 2007
Posts: 14
Location: Cebu City, Philippines
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 2:45 am Reply with quote
hi everyone!...

hmmm....a new topic from me again..hehehe...

uhm, guyz what do you think would happen to anime a few years from now?...

hmmm...will it be far way better or will it die?...i hope not...

well, i just got curious so i posted this topic...

I think, a few years from now, anime would be very famous...more famous than it is now..we've got creators who arevery intelligent and creative as well..also, there are many undying fans of anime...as time goes by, the number of anime fans grows up and up...no way but up..and i just hope that every anime that would be released in the future would not destroy the reputation established by the old animes...or should i say, the animes of our time..

hehehe...that's all for now guyz..i had just run of words and its kinda cool in here...i'll be back for more..

thanks!!!
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zombie828



Joined: 14 Nov 2006
Posts: 62
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:38 am Reply with quote
I can't see much happening to anime in a few years. A few decades, possibly. Perhaps in 25 years we'll have subbed anime on TV, or something.
Something can't "die", unless people stop caring about it. If anime were ever to die I'm sure very few people would mind (since the audience must somehow diminish first, and I don't see that happening for a long long time).

Quote:
animes
The plural of anime is simply "anime", btw. :P
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Leuconoe



Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 83
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 12:26 pm Reply with quote
I'm no expert, and indeed it might be worth checking the archives of a Western 'industry commentator' such as Answerman or 'John' at Anime Nation.

I think we'll see an ever increasing, and hopefully increasingly creative use of CGI, and more studios using the potential of HDTV.

I'd like to see financial backers being more sympathetic to experimental and niche audience series, OVAs and movies, although given that theses people are 'financial backers' I fear it's unlikely.

I don't think anime will become 'mainstream' in the West - the strength of Western (cough, US, cough) culture at the moment is such that this is impossible.

I do think we will see an increasing influence of anime (and manga) on Western culture - not just animation - as hopefully the 'fanbase' will grow.

I also think that following the growth of successful series adaptions of light novels, more studios will look to this form as a good source of source material.

I would like to see more studios doing 'original' series (i.e. not derived from manga or light novels or anywhere else), but this depends on the Japanese anime market's state. If it's growing and healthy, sponsors will be more willing to invest in unproven concepts which don't have the legacy of a successful manga or light novel series.

I think that we may well see growth in the US anime market, following the 'lean times' which have occured recently. Of course this will only indirectly affect me, as I'm a UK consumer.

I also think that we will see Western anime publishers engaging with the Web's possibilities in a more inventive way. ADV's (I think) recent moves in streaming first episodes of their products on their site is perhaps an initial stirring of this movement.

But as I said, I am not an expert. There's also a distinction to be drawn between 'anime in Japan' and 'anime as exported to the rest of the world (whether via legal or illegal channels)'.
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SolRHN



Joined: 04 Oct 2007
Posts: 13
Location: Sault Sainte Marie, Michigan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 1:19 pm Reply with quote
Trends come and go in the mainstream, but there is always a small faction the holds onto "what once was", so even if anime diminishes I believe it will still be around. A good parallel is in music. As rock 'n' roll emerged in the 50s, based off of blues and jazz, and then 20 years later the 70s saw something completely different, and then the 80s happened, and things changed some more and rock 'n' roll might as well have been dead because it was all "heavy metal" now, but then the nineties came and it was no longer cool to know how to play your instrument. Now technical playing, and all the old school blues and jazz roots are coming back. The point I'm making is that art is a living, evolving entity, and though the face of it may change over time, the roots remain. If there is a diminishing, have no worry because it will swing around again.

I've noticed that Japanese manga and anime, for the large part, is tending toward a more mass produced, "cookie cutter" appearance with redundant themes and thin plots. Of course, there is always an exception to the rule, but that is how it is. Music is the same way. But, I have noticed that Korean production is stepping up and turning out some really nice stuff. Their cinema is far better too. Sorry to say it, but Japanese cinema is kinda poor. Korea is possibly the next big wave the comics/animation world, and I don't have a problem with that. Also remember that this is art, and as long as people feel creative and capable, there will be art. Animation is making large strides to win back the adult audience that it was originally intended for, and it's working, slowly, but it is working. I, for one, can't wait to see what happens in the coming years. Be it Korea, Japan, Germany, Brasil...I don't care, as long as it is quality, thought provoking, and emotive.
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The Seventh Son



Joined: 27 Nov 2005
Posts: 380
Location: Where your missing socks end up.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 2:07 pm Reply with quote
anime will never be big in the US. the entire way of thinking in the country would have to shift, and anime is not going to do that. years from now, its not gonna be "that dbz/whatever crap/cartoon porn" anymore. it will just be crap under the name of a different series. a culture shift on that scale (probably anime wont be involved) would only happen if the current culture in the US at this current time quickly switched. and thats not gonna happen anytime soon.
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Keonyn
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Joined: 25 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:36 pm Reply with quote
I imagine anime will likely be in the same place in a few years that it is right now. Distribution of anime is likelier to decrease than increase in my opinion, given recent trends. We've enjoyed a number of years of frequent licensing and releases but now those companies are beginning to pay for that and I think they're going to be a lot more conservative in the coming years than they have been.

Then there's the ever looming shadow of piracy that, as long as it exists, will keep the markets growth in check. No major investments or money are going to flood in to this market as long as there is that big question mark standing over it.

I think the only significant change we may expect to see would be a shift to a next-gen format for releases. There's also the possibility they will explore the electronic distribution market as well though it will be difficult for them to get backing as the people who would buy online are the same that download fansubs already.
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ElementSun



Joined: 02 Aug 2007
Posts: 106
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:26 pm Reply with quote
I would say that the world is currently shifting to a a more Pacific influenced culture.

Look at massive progress in technology and entertainment, a majority of those come from China, Japan, and Korea. I would think that anime will flourish in the next 25 years if they can keep the characters original and the stories and plotline fresh.
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TheVok



Joined: 09 Mar 2007
Posts: 613
Location: North York, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 8:01 pm Reply with quote
Leuconoe wrote:
There's also a distinction to be drawn between 'anime in Japan' and 'anime as exported to the rest of the world'.


Yup. And Japan is why anime will be just fine ... the country can sustain the industry.

As for anime's popularity in other countries, that is indeed an entirely different matter ... and ultimately a secondary one. While I live in Canada, this thread's original poster lives in the Phillippines, you live in the U.K. and most of the other posters in this thread live in the U.S., the anime industry--despite whatever money we help bring to it--isn't really for or about us. The occasional production will come together with a western audience in mind (e.g. Afro Samurai), but for the most part, the industry isn't heavily affected by what happens outside Japan.

For that matter, our own countries don't have all that much in common. Certainly what happens with anime in the Phillippines has little or nothing to do with what happens with anime in the U.K.

And that's why answers to this kind of question always need to be couched with the disclaimer, "In my country, ...."
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SolRHN



Joined: 04 Oct 2007
Posts: 13
Location: Sault Sainte Marie, Michigan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 9:02 pm Reply with quote
Well put, however, I do believe that the global market is of some concern. Yes, Japan's market is marginally affected by exports, and if those exports were to decline they would nevertheless keep doing what they do--it is part of their culture, much like western cartooning is part of american culture, albeit to a lesser extent. When it comes down to it, as far as distribution and importing of asain entertainment goes, it depends a lot on how nations are interacting with oneanother, and how each nation's economy is going. For America, there has been a boom, and then a decline, and now it's rising again. Cartoon network is helping a lot, and by bring over more adult titles like Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex--my favorite anime, period. And, with the cartoon audience of the 80s/90s coming of age after all those greats, and all those innovations, they are looking to anime to fiil the role left void by the decline of quality western animation. We are they who are starting to influence entertainment for adults, and quality animation is always welcome. But, as previously stated, Japanese animation is getting kind of stale, like they reached the top and stopped trying, and I think Korea is gonna bring the competition. They are putting out some serious work over there, and I'm impressed. Well, I guess that's all I have for now.
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Rakushun



Joined: 28 May 2004
Posts: 116
Location: Hawaii
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 11:22 pm Reply with quote
I think the mass export of anime has convinced some countries to invest in their own animation industries, so we'll see increased animated programming coming from China, Korea, and who knows where else. If you define "anime" as a solely Japanese product, that means that anime will see small declines in the global market as other countries start to compete with it. If you define it as a regional or global product, then it can only grow from here.
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daxomni



Joined: 08 Nov 2005
Posts: 2650
Location: Somewhere else.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:09 pm Reply with quote
Keonyn wrote:
I imagine anime will likely be in the same place in a few years that it is right now. Distribution of anime is likelier to decrease than increase in my opinion, given recent trends.


I'd say it's extremely likely to decrease, at least in the number of titles licensed and probably in inflation-adjusted revenue as well. Number of units sold might go up, but they will probably be coming from a smaller number of titles.

Keonyn wrote:
We've enjoyed a number of years of frequent licensing and releases but now those companies are beginning to pay for that and I think they're going to be a lot more conservative in the coming years than they have been.


Exactly. The American market is hits-driven; most niche titles will never pay for themselves. Right Stuf seems to have the right idea for how to handle niche titles in the American market, assuming they can get the license holders to go along with them.

1. Require a preorder quota to be met upfront
2. Offer low-volume titles in sub-only format

The vast majority of non-mainstream titles will probably fail to meet their preorder quota requirement and thus the risk to the company will be minimal.

Keonyn wrote:
Then there's the ever looming shadow of piracy that, as long as it exists, will keep the markets growth in check.


"In check?" More like "In limbo." Piracy on this scale is way beyond any sort of check or balance. And it's gone on for so long that I don't ever see it stopping or even really slowing down. People will continue to risk owing more money than they'll ever earn and even their freedom to avoid paying for something they think has little or no monetary value. It will take a much harsher crackdown than anything we've yet seen to really change people's minds about this.

Keonyn wrote:
No major investments or money are going to flood in to this market as long as there is that big question mark standing over it.


I don't see this going away any time soon, at least not in my lifetime. Maybe some other generation will take it more seriously, but Gen X and Y appear to be convinced that piracy is no problem.

Keonyn wrote:
I think the only significant change we may expect to see would be a shift to a next-gen format for releases. There's also the possibility they will explore the electronic distribution market as well though it will be difficult for them to get backing as the people who would buy online are the same that download fansubs already.


I was expecting to see this wave a long time ago, but the Betamax style format war seems to be slowing adoption rates and at this point I don't see it being resolved until dual players and/or dual discs are commonplace.
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emory



Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Posts: 615
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:44 pm Reply with quote
I think there's going to be an industry crash within the next couple years.
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TheVok



Joined: 09 Mar 2007
Posts: 613
Location: North York, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:31 pm Reply with quote
emory wrote:
I think there's going to be an industry crash within the next couple years.


In Japan? Really?

Because that's where the industry itself is based. The rest is ancillary, as mentioned.
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Redbeard 101
Oscar the Grouch
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Joined: 14 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:50 pm Reply with quote
First off I think anime will still be here and fine in a few years. I think it will have changed a bit though. The anime industry has to embrace digital media more then they are. They have to find a way to integrate and deal with piracy and the way entertainment is heading more and more towards the digital field as opposed to your cds and dvds. Has this Golden Aged ended? Sure, every one has to. But if they get their acts together they can have another one in the future.

Now I think the amount of titles we see will go down. Companies are going to have to be more choosy and careful with what they license and bring over. They can't bring over as many as quickly or they won't make any profit. They also can't simply license niche titles alone. If they do that like Geneon they might have the same problem. They gotta find a nice balance between them and the hits people want.
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emory



Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Posts: 615
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:59 pm Reply with quote
TheVok wrote:
emory wrote:
I think there's going to be an industry crash within the next couple years.


In Japan? Really?

Because that's where the industry itself is based. The rest is ancillary, as mentioned.


I don't mean a total shutdown, but a significant fallout where production will decrease dramatically and smaller studios will reduce their budgets or get bought out so they stop bleeding cash.
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