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I only replied to the discrimination argument because agila61 presented it here. Perhaps it was a poor choice, but when it's used in a way that I think misrepresents me I feel I need to clarify what the real position is.

I also disagree with what you said here in response to that argument, but you didn't misrepresent me so I don't feel a need to engage you on it here. I might send you a PM about it. I do think you misrepresented libertarians a bit, notwithstanding your demographic point, because the tradition of individualist anarchism has always been in opposition to racism and slavery. Lysander Spooner is a good example.

zaphdash wrote:

I don't know, but neither does Viacom or EMI or Toei.

I don't think they have really tried to think this out in that way. They are convinced (and perhaps rightfully so) that newer models of distribution and revenue will probably largely cut out middlemen who operate in the way that they do today.

So their primary interest is to extend law as far as they can to try to get back the control of distribution.

zaphdash wrote:

It seems to me that your argument is that these MP3s are different products because a pirate will download the illegal MP3 and still buy the song on iTunes as well. I don't agree with that.

This is a correct interpretation of what I was saying. Since you don't agree do you have specific studies that counter those that have shown that pirates buy more media than the general populace? I don't think the conditioning that you are talking about is gone at all. I think the greatest challenge to that conditioning is trying to force people to follow it in every case. But as a rule I think even pirates see value in paying for media, contrary to a strictly "rational" view that the price must tend towards zero. I say this based on my own actions as well.

Alan45 wrote:

Sorry, there is a "right to be served". It is established by law.

This is off-topic, but I feel the need to point out this argument claims every war, every pogrom, every purge, every political imprisonment, every forced relocation, every disappearing of dissidents is legitimate so long as the state that did it said it was. Claiming legislation as the source of rights is effectively claiming human beings are state property, something quite at odds with the very concept of inalienable rights.

That out of the way, zaphdash, you're completely ignoring the idea of substitute goods - a Mercedes is a very different product from a BMW, but not many people want more than one car that says "I have too much money on my hands".

zaphdash wrote:

... Millions of illegal downloads + falling revenues + fundamentals of economics and marketplace behavior all together paint a bleak long-term picture for commercial distribution.

See, that's the kind of sweeping argument I am responding to. If there are millions of illegal downloads of anime (?), there certainly aren't any more of them now than there was in 2008. And revenues from digital distribution are rising.

There may be a lot more Hollywood downloads than in 2008, but the anime has always been ahead of the curve on these things. It already had a fully matured illicit distribution system by 2008.

And I've argued your "fundamental of economics and marketplace behavior" are oversimplified. Indeed, I'd reckon they are oversimplified compared to my mainstream colleagues, and they oversimplify things themselves.

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I would separate cinemas from most of the rest of these, ...

Cinemas are not very relevant to the anime industry in the US anyway, or elsewhere outside of Japan, so they can be set to one side so long as we are focusing on the international rights income revenue stream.

Quote:

Re: Netflix, hulu, etc, I've never said these services can't be profitable, in fact I've acknowledged as much on several occasions. But annual box office receipts alone utterly dwarf Netflix's annual revenue, ...

Not for the US anime industry, they don't. Trying to address both Hollywood and the international rights income revenue stream of the anime industry would be painting with too broad a brush.

Quote:

When you say that "free trumps paid doesn't actually seem to be happening," that's just patently false. Anime companies, movie studios, record companies, all the media industries are making less money in 2012 than they were making in 2002, ...

I am comparing apples to apples, there, digital distribution to digital distribution, and its quite clearly true that international rights income from digital distribution of anime has been growing since 2009.

Quote:

in 2008 you could gain access to fansubs of the majority of anime series currently broadcasting in Japan, by bittorrent or by leech streaming, in anywhere from a day or two to a week or two after broadcast. "Free" was "trumping" paid every day of the week and twice on Saturday.

And commercial digital distribution has expanded since then on multiple fronts. Which, it "free trumps paid" worked as an automatic law of nature, doesn't make any sense.

Of course it makes sense. There are intervening factors which ensure that not every single person will steal something just because they can ...

For example, because its more convenient to buy it. Because it provides a higher quality video than the lower quality available on most video streaming sites. Because its available wherever you have access to a browser, and not just when you bring your external hard disk with you. Because that particular episode is available and hour or two after it broadcasts in Japan. etc.

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... before legitimate streaming options developed, many of these were the people who were continuing to buy DVDs (and maybe still do even now). Is this group big enough to keep everyone in business? My supposition is that it is not.

Those people don't have to keep everyone in business on their own. The revenue from those people are supplemented by smaller amounts collected from a far larger number of people like myself.

Step aside from the sweeping abstractions and consider the numbers. Last time numbers leaked out, there were almost 70,000 subscribing members of Crunchyroll. There are 22.2 simulcasts currently streaming. If the average subscribing member follows 5 simulcasts, that would mean an average audience of 15,000.

At a time when selling 3,000 DVD's is considered a successful release, that subscribing membership has to be a lot more than just the DVD buying market. So Crunchyroll is already broadening the market. And all of that has happened since 2008, at a time when almost every anime series was available in the form of bootleg fansubs from a few days to a few weeks after broadcast. So it can't be just a "holdover" from a "pre-bootleg access" period: it all happened after bootleg internet access was already completely entrenched.

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I don't know specifically what Xanas said in the discussion you're mentioning, but I wouldn't necessarily say I advocate abolishing copyright, although it's probably fair to say that I am pretty resigned to the reality that copyright may effectively be a thing of the past.

OK, that's what I was asking ~ and, indeed, that was the impression I got.

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... I don't see any practical options to curtail unauthorized copying of that work; to the extent that "copyright" literally refers to "the right to copy," my position is probably more that technology has, for better or worse, already eliminated this right, rather than that we as a society should eliminate it.

My argument is that this is overstating the current state of affairs. That is, markets are not homogeneous and uniform masses, but rather when examined in detail present a far more varied terrain. And while some members of the audience are beyond the potential reach of the market, that does not automatically mean that all members of the audience are heading in that same direction.

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... all of these industries are making less and less money, even in spite of offering more and more digital options.

However, when you disaggregate, the industry in question is making an increasing amount of money from digital distribution.

There are three fundamental possibilities:
(1) commercial digital distribution is simple dominated by illicit bootleg distribution
(2) commercial digital distribution can gain a foothold, but its niche is too small to make any useful contribution to sustaining its industry; and
(3) commercial digital distribution can not only gain a foothold, but can grow to the point of being able to make a useful contribution to sustaining its industry.

We can already rule out (1) for the international rights income revenue stream for the anime industry, because commercial digital distribution has already succeeded in growing its market in the face of well entrenched illicit digital distribution. That's not theory, that's evidence: direct empirical observation.

So that leaves (2) or (3). Which one it is, that is too early to say. If total paying subscribers to anime websites matures at around 150,000 per year, and the ad-streaming revenues fails to reach the point of being more than self-funding advertising for paid subscriptions, and if the digital download markets remain at about their current market level ... then that would be (2). OTOH, if total paying subscribers to anime websites matured at around 300,000, if the margin on ad-streaming revenues over bandwidth costs reached the point of at least being an additional appreciable royalties stream, and if digital download markets have substantial upside growth potential, then that would be (3).

So I'd argue that its no sure thing by any stretch of imagination, but neither is is a sure failure, either.

Note here that for a big portion of the anime audience, there is actually a (4) up there ~ where digital distribution revenues are substantial enough that adding them to the collectors market can sustain a domestic dubbing industry. That is, it is certainly conceivable that an international localization survives for subs but not for dubs ~ but I think most anime fans hope that somehow business models can be put together to keep it from coming to that.

Finally, as digital distribution increases its market share, the measures of market decline also risk overstating the problem, since production and distribution costs are substantially more than half the retail price of most anime on physical media, and so there is a certain degree of measured market decline in a transition from physical to digital media that is measuring the reduction in production and distribution costs, rather than a reduction in net revenues.
_______________________
Sidenote:

Xanas wrote:

You never have a "right to be served."

In the US, you have a right to be served by a public establishment without discrimination on the basis of race.

I raise this as the time when that right did not exist is more recent than the time when the copyright did not exist, and so the exploitation of people under the system of allowing people to be excluded from lunch counters and restaurants is something more vivid in people's imaginations than the exploitation of artists and authors by business before the establishment of copyright.

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If you have a "right to be served" this means you have a right to compel other people to serve you, which is to say that they are enslaved to your rights, for this is what it means when to have an obligation that you didn't choose to take on.

Nobody forces anybody to open a public establishment. But if they decide to do so, then I do not think they should be allowed to take advantage of the broad physical and social infrastructure we provide to those who operate public establishments and then complain about the requirement in the US that they are not allowed to refuse service to individuals on the basis of race.

DavidShallcross wrote:

Subject to the question of what Crunchyroll considers to be "anime". For example, I rather doubt Crunchyroll puts a bid on Chibi Maruko-chan every year, but I'm willing to be corrected by an actual Crunchyroll spokesman.

I would assume CR only puts in bids on new anime. If you've already approached a company about licensing a show, pestering them about it each season would likely be counter-productive.

TitanXL wrote:

Is this exclusively simulcasted or includes DVD/BD release? I was speaking more DVD/BD release personally.

I was referring to simulcast, although in my mind, a license is a license, whether it be for streaming, broadcast, or physical media.

Lynx Amali wrote:

Explain to me why it aired on TV then. -_-

Link

Explain to me why the dub ran for about 2 years if it wasn't successful.
But yeah, your point still stands as it didn't air in the US but rather Canada. Pretty decent dub too. Then again, it was a Toei made dub.

First, broadcast TV has a lot more money to play with than streaming websites currently do.

Second, you state it was "successful", but it ran for 2 years. By comparison, how many years has Precure in various incarnations been running in Japan?

Finally, keep in mind that the first Precure series, which is the same one you pointed to the dub of, is streamed by Crunchyroll and Funimation.

DavidShallcross wrote:

agila61 wrote:

...
Precure
...
The broadcasters normally license it from the R1 license holder.

However, this does at least place the speculation at the feet of the actual decision makers ~ per information from a reddit AMA last summer, Crunchyroll bids for every anime that goes to broadcast every season, so if they do not get a series, its never because "Crunchyroll passed", its always because the rights holder decided not to take Crunchyroll's offer.

Subject to the question of what Crunchyroll considers to be "anime". For example, I rather doubt Crunchyroll puts a bid on Chibi Maruko-chan every year, but I'm willing to be corrected by an actual Crunchyroll spokesman.

I don't know where they draw the line (other than animation and live action) ~ after all, they count Poyopoyo and Kaasan Mom's Life. I used to think they didn't bid for "tween" anime like the card game anime ~ but then they picked up Cardfight Vanguard.

In any event, the statement at the reddit AMA was:

Quote:

2. Every season we make a bid for every single title that will be broadcast on tv in japan.

~ that was under the i_work_at_croll login, but with a (CEO) note, so that's the CEO writing, I read that as talking about new series ~ I don't read that as saying that they rebid for each and every continuing series, each and every broadcast season, or semi-annually, or annually.

Still on a side topic about Crunchyroll.

agila61 wrote:

I don't know where they draw the line (other than animation and live action) ~ after all, they count Poyopoyo and Kaasan Mom's Life. I used to think they didn't bid for "tween" anime like the card game anime ~ but then they picked up Cardfight Vanguard.

In any event, the statement at the reddit AMA was:

Quote:

2. Every season we make a bid for every single title that will be broadcast on tv in japan.

~ that was under the i_work_at_croll login, but with a (CEO) note, so that's the CEO writing, I read that as talking about new series ~ I don't read that as saying that they rebid for each and every continuing series, each and every broadcast season, or semi-annually, or annually.

OK. It had looked to me like Crunchyroll's lineup was skewed towards anime targeted at teenagers and otaku, and away from the pre-teen stuff, as compared with Japanese TV, but that can be explained by
A) the pre-teen stuff tends to be long-running, so fewer new titles;
B) they bid on the pre-teen stuff, but the bids are too small.

In any event, nobody is bringing over Doraemon any time soon.

@Polycel

All I said was that you have the right to be served in a public place without descrimination. How in the world do you get to pograms from that.

Yes some countries have had bad and evil laws. Yes even now we have some bad and stupid laws in this country. What would you do, deny the ligitimacy of all law on that basis. Don't be silly, that would be anarchy. Even if you could find a society without law, you wouldn't like it.

DavidShallcross wrote:

Still on a side topic about Crunchyroll. ...

I'll note that how it got to Crunchyroll in particular was TitanXL said

Quote:

US is the key thing here.. Precure is big in Italy and other countries, but these R1/simulcasts tend to be US region only.

... and Crunchyroll is the only one of the main simulcast services for the R1 market that has a majority of their simulcasts available outside of North America ~ though only the 5 other conventional "English Speaking Countries" plus Northern Europe and Brazil are getting half or more, with Spanish America and the Caribbean somewhere over 2/5.

TheAncientOne wrote:

DavidShallcross wrote:

Subject to the question of what Crunchyroll considers to be "anime". For example, I rather doubt Crunchyroll puts a bid on Chibi Maruko-chan every year, but I'm willing to be corrected by an actual Crunchyroll spokesman.

I would assume CR only puts in bids on new anime. If you've already approached a company about licensing a show, pestering them about it each season would likely be counter-productive.

Actually CR did go after both Chibi Maruko and Sazae-san...

Not because they thought they'd pull in huge numbers, but because licensing them would be the ultimate "legitimizer" in the industry and would be huge news within Japan itself (bringing in investors, etc...).

However both Chibi Maruko and Sazae-san are well nigh impossible to license outside of Japan, due to the fact they are considered almost national treasures. (Think about, like, how hard it would be to license the Flintstones and/or the Jetsons during the time they were still on TV...)
Actually Sazae-san IS impossible to license. It doesn't even come out on DVD in Japan itself for like, 10 years! They lock the masters in a vault or something. To say that they're over-protective of that show is an extreme understatement.

samuelp wrote:

TheAncientOne wrote:

DavidShallcross wrote:

Subject to the question of what Crunchyroll considers to be "anime". For example, I rather doubt Crunchyroll puts a bid on Chibi Maruko-chan every year, but I'm willing to be corrected by an actual Crunchyroll spokesman.

I would assume CR only puts in bids on new anime. If you've already approached a company about licensing a show, pestering them about it each season would likely be counter-productive.

Actually CR did go after both Chibi Maruko and Sazae-san...

Not because they thought they'd pull in huge numbers, but because licensing them would be the ultimate "legitimizer" in the industry and would be huge news within Japan itself (bringing in investors, etc...).

However both Chibi Maruko and Sazae-san are well nigh impossible to license outside of Japan, due to the fact they are considered almost national treasures. (Think about, like, how hard it would be to license the Flintstones and/or the Jetsons during the time they were still on TV...)
Actually Sazae-san IS impossible to license. It doesn't even come out on DVD in Japan itself for like, 10 years! They lock the masters in a vault or something. To say that they're over-protective of that show is an extreme understatement.

Sazae-san not getting a home video release was at the request of the creator.

So the chances of it ever airing outside of Japan is slim to none, online or on TV.

Alan45 wrote:

All I said was that you have the right to be served in a public place without descrimination. How in the world do you get to pograms from that.

You used legislation to counter an ethical argument. Unless you're going to argue that a state has every right to do whatever it wants with the people in its territory, legislation is irrelevant.

Quote:

Yes some countries have had bad and evil laws. Yes even now we have some bad and stupid laws in this country. What would you do, deny the ligitimacy of all law on that basis.

I deny that state policy is any source of ethical obligations. At any rate, bringing legislation into line with people's ethics is the best way to breed respect for it.

Quote:

Don't be silly, that would be anarchy. Even if you could find a society without law, you wouldn't like it.

That last bit hinges on defining 'law' as something only a state can promulgate, which is contradicted by things like lex mercatoria.

But enough of that tangent - my post was simply pointing out the implications of using legislation as an ethical argument. If you don't like them, don't do it.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled squabble over the profitability of digital distribution, already in progress.

The whole public vs private argument isn't any better because who declares what's public and what makes that declaration legitimate?

@Xanas

What is public is defined by law. I am sure there are fuzzy areas for the lawyers to play with, but for most commercial establishments it is cut and dried. It is legitimate because it is the law of the land and the government is prepared to enforce it.

So would you classify this as essentially based upon "might makes right?"

@Xanas

No, quite the reverse. I see government and law as what stands between us and "might makes right". In a state of nature, without community, government or law, the only right you have is the pursuit of survival. The first nasty thing that comes along can remove that right.

You can proclaim all the rights you want, but if there is no government and no laws you have only your strong arm to enforce those rights, and there is always some one stronger.

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