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NEWS: Japan Decides on Thursday on Whether to Partly Lift State of Emergency




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Kougeru



Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 5046
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:19 am Reply with quote
their "curve" has not only flattened, but sunk. They're definitely on a good course but will need to still have heavy restrictions. I don't think things like concerts and sports at least should exist this year
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bluesheep02



Joined: 27 Mar 2006
Posts: 73
Location: Tokyo, Japan
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 2:53 am Reply with quote
Kougeru wrote:
their "curve" has not only flattened, but sunk. They're definitely on a good course but will need to still have heavy restrictions. I don't think things like concerts and sports at least should exist this year


Our curve sunk because of a continued lack of testing, hospitals being closed over golden week, and hospitals refusing to take suspected covid patients to from ambulances. The numbers are so skewed...
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omiya



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
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Location: Adelaide, South Australia
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 7:22 am Reply with quote
This article covers some details about the lack of testing in Japan:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200511/p2a/00m/0na/007000c
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Kaylee Smerbeck



Joined: 26 Jul 2017
Posts: 73
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 9:42 am Reply with quote
If the lockdown is working keep it up it only takes 1 bad day to fudge it up
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Beatdigga



Joined: 26 Oct 2003
Posts: 3070
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PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 10:36 am Reply with quote
omiya wrote:
This article covers some details about the lack of testing in Japan:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200511/p2a/00m/0na/007000c


All the more reason to leave it in place. Until you’re sure, you need to stop.
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Tempest
ANN Publisher & CEO


Joined: 29 Dec 2001
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PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:46 pm Reply with quote
Kougeru wrote:
their "curve" has not only flattened, but sunk. They're definitely on a good course but will need to still have heavy restrictions. I don't think things like concerts and sports at least should exist this year


The number of infections is really, really dependant on local testing procedures. It can be really, really important to local policy making because the local epidemialogists understand the local testing standards (and hopefully politicians are listening to them).

In countries without wide-spread testing, the reported infections stat is really, really useless to anyone but an expert. If & when Japan adopts wide-spread testing, their reported infections statistic will sky-rocket suddenly.

Fatality per capita isn't quite perfect, as some people die at home without ever beiong tested. For those dying without ever being tested, most countries are not counting them as "Covid-19 deaths." But in first world countries, most people who develop serious conditions do end up getting tested, the fatality rate is more accurate than the infections rate.

Of course, the fatality rate per infection does vary per country. But ultimately, deaths are what we are trying to avoid, so a country with lots of infections, but very few deaths is a success story.

My preferred number to look at to see how a country is doing is deaths per capita / 7-day rolling average.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?yScale=log&country=ESP+USA+GBR+KOR+CAN+JPN+SGP+TWN

The big problem with this statistic is that countries (even Japan), are big places. So national averages don't tell the whole story. In Canada, the whole country looks flatish... but actually most of the country is doing well, and one city (mine Sad ) is doing poorly. Meanwhile the US graph looks good, but most of the country is actually getting worse, and one city (NYC), is getting better.

Nippon.com has statistics for Japan broken down by prefecture, sadly they don't have daily / rolling averages for fatalities. https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00657/coronavirus-cases-in-japan-by-prefecture.html - I'm sure someone in Japan has tabulated this data, but I haven't seen it yet.

-t
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xxmsxx



Joined: 06 Sep 2017
Posts: 19
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:35 pm Reply with quote
Tempest wrote:


The big problem with this statistic is that countries (even Japan), are big places. So national averages don't tell the whole story. In Canada, the whole country looks flatish... but actually most of the country is doing well, and one city (mine Sad ) is doing poorly. Meanwhile the US graph looks good, but most of the country is actually getting worse, and one city (NYC), is getting better.



Fellow Canadian here. Thanks for the explanation.

It appears that testing has been a major problem in Japan from the start. Not that other countries didn't experience this, but usually testing capacity turn around in about three to six weeks. This does not appear to have happened in Japan Crying or Very sad
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Kaylee Smerbeck



Joined: 26 Jul 2017
Posts: 73
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:58 pm Reply with quote
xxmsxx wrote:
Tempest wrote:


The big problem with this statistic is that countries (even Japan), are big places. So national averages don't tell the whole story. In Canada, the whole country looks flatish... but actually most of the country is doing well, and one city (mine Sad ) is doing poorly. Meanwhile the US graph looks good, but most of the country is actually getting worse, and one city (NYC), is getting better.



Fellow Canadian here. Thanks for the explanation.

It appears that testing has been a major problem in Japan from the start. Not that other countries didn't experience this, but usually testing capacity turn around in about three to six weeks. This does not appear to have happened in Japan Crying or Very sad

Yeah the US got hit hard by testing or lack there of no reason Japan wouldn't be in the same boat. Also is it swab tests they're short on antibody or both
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Tempest
ANN Publisher & CEO


Joined: 29 Dec 2001
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PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2020 4:15 pm Reply with quote
Kaylee Smerbeck wrote:

Yeah the US got hit hard by testing or lack there of no reason Japan wouldn't be in the same boat. Also is it swab tests they're short on antibody or both


The issue isn't a shortage of test kits. The problem is that their action plan doesn't call for widespread testing. Details available in the article Omiya linked to: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200511/p2a/00m/0na/007000c
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