Forum - View topic
NEWS: Variety: AT&T Asks at Least US$1 Billion for Crunchyroll From Multiple Buyers


Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

Note: this is the discussion thread for this article

Anime News Network Forum Index -> Site-related -> Talkback
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
DeTroyes



Joined: 30 May 2016
Posts: 460
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:26 pm Reply with quote
Ryuji-Dono wrote:
Who could be the other buyers for Crunchyroll apart from Sony? Netflix, Amazon, Disney, any company with a streaming service?


I'm guessing a private investment group spearheaded by Chinese money. Outside chance of a Japanese publisher (Kadokawa?) looking to gain better footing in the west, but unlikely.

Of the entities mentioned above, Amazon is the most likely. However, there does appear to be some bad feelings with them regarding anime after the whole Anime Strike debacle, so I'm not sure if they want to jump into the mizu once more.

You can forget Disney; they're bleeding money worse than Warner Media/ATT, and may be looking to unload some of their divisions as well.

Netflix might be in the mix, but they seem to be more picky about what shows they acquire and CR's library might not be a good fit for them (too much fan service and other themes that Netflix generally tries to stay clear of).

Sony really does seem to be the best fit for CR; if no one else bites, I expect that is where it will eventually wind up.

AJ (LordNikon) wrote:
NBCUniversal (Comcast), Viacomm. If some smaller players, Cox Media Group, Nexstar Broadcasting and Sinclair Broadcast Group want to expand in to stream, this one avenue.


D'oh! Forgot about those, especially Comcast and Viacomm. Feel like an idiot right now. Those are both good possibilities. Don't know much about Cox Media or Nexstar, but Sinclair strikes me as unlikely due to ideological reasons (too straight laced religious conservative).

Greed1914 wrote:
Some of that could be that they are starting high to give themselves room to negotiate on price. But I also think that some if it is they are hurting for cash and need a big influx to help deal with that debt. They took on a lot to make acquisitions not long before COVID started cutting off the usual entertainment revenue streams.


I think a lot of this is just jockeying for negotiations. But if ATT offered CR to Sony for $1.5B, then $1B to others, that means the price has already gone down $500M -- so perhaps Sony might be better off waiting a little to see if it comes down even more.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
CastMember1991



Joined: 06 Feb 2012
Posts: 655
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:43 pm Reply with quote
el_morris wrote:
Ryuji-Dono wrote:
Who could be the other buyers for Crunchyroll apart from Sony? Netflix, Amazon, Disney, any company with a streaming service?

I would add Comcast, they were bidding against Sony on the sale of Funimation, and it's subsidiary Universal it's on the anime industry.


I could see NBC try to come up with network television's answer to Toonami if they were to buy Crunchyroll. Watching anime on NBC would be something for those who don't have cable or subscribe to streaming.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Ryuji-Dono



Joined: 26 Apr 2018
Posts: 427
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:15 pm Reply with quote
So, based on what you guys said, there could be a possibility that Crunchyroll could be reformated into a new show based on the company they get bought. As the one user above said, NBC may do it's own answer to Toonami if they acquire Crunchyroll. As for Viacomm, if I remember correctly, they own Nicklodeon. So maybe they could create a special channel block from Crunchyroll in the same vein as Adult Swim?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Beatdigga



Joined: 26 Oct 2003
Posts: 3180
Location: Here!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:49 pm Reply with quote
I feel like somewhat the opposite is true, that companies will use their offerings if they do buy the service to beef up any potential competitor to Netflix. Peacock, for example, is not exactly flying off the shelves, but Peacock as a super service that includes Crunchyroll? Probably gets more people on board to pay a monthly fee than just a Saved by the Bell reboot.

Crunchyroll as part of a larger service (which for whatever reason HBO Max is keeping at arms length, presumably because they knew this was about to happen) does add a value that Netflix and its investment in anime exclusives has but a lot of other on demand services doesn’t. Not to mention you probably get the Otter Media studio and the originals they made as a package deal. So that’s a fairly decent amount of IP’s in case say, some Universal executive gets the bright idea to make a live action Rising of the Shield Hero. The question is what’s the price for that niche and those IP’s.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
yuna49



Joined: 27 Aug 2008
Posts: 3310
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:54 pm Reply with quote
I'm paying $23 per quarter for Crunchyroll, or roughly $100 per year. ATT thinks I should be worth $400-500 to a prospective buyer of the service. I've been a subscriber since 2014, so I might be worth that much, but I'd guess most CR subscribers rarely stay around as long as I have. I'd be curious to know what kind of "churn rates" (the percent of subscribers who drop the service in an average year) CR has. "The churn rate for the top satellite TV services was 7.5%" in 2018. I'd guess CR doesn't qualify as a "top" satellite service.

Basically for a subscriber to be worth $400-500 at CR's current fees, the average subscriber would have to remain with the service for at least four to five years. I think that's unlikely. At 10% churn a subscriber would have generated about $350 after four years. At 20% that falls to about $290.

TarsTarkas wrote:
Streaming still has buffering issues and other peculiarities.
Streaming is a nice addition to cable, but it doesn't replace it yet.

I stream everything using YouTubeTV and the various services like Netflix, Amazon, and CR. I rarely have buffering problems or any other "peculiarities." In return I don't have to rent a DVR from the cable operator at $10-20/month. All of my saved programs are stored "in the cloud." YTTV makes it easy to record a single show, all episodes of a particular show, and even all episodes of all shows in a particular genre. Last year I would routinely have a couple dozen NCAA basketball games available on a given night. The recordings seem to stay there for months, too. Of course, my "recording" is simply an entry in my subscription database table.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
TarsTarkas



Joined: 20 Dec 2007
Posts: 4682
Location: Virginia, United States
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:59 pm Reply with quote
@Yuna49

Lot of people have great internet service, and a lot of people don't. You are right about the costs. But for many people the convenience of cable is what is important. I make a lot of allowances for watching anime, because it is what I love. But for the rest of my watching needs I keep it simple.

But cable doomsayers seem to think that most everyone's watching habits are like theirs. Sure streaming might be the future, but it still has a lot of growing pains to overcome. Infrastructure and speed are the biggest issues, followed by content. Not everyone wants to deal with several different providers, and jumping through hoops to get content that streaming services don't provide.

Streaming services either need to become more like cable or the streaming industry grows with more divergent streaming services being offered, alongside a truly intelligent and ergonomic box (or TV) that makes all the switching and accounts invisible. Until that, cable will be with us for quite awhile.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Eivion



Joined: 26 Dec 2008
Posts: 560
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:06 pm Reply with quote
yuna49 wrote:
I'm paying $23 per quarter for Crunchyroll, or roughly $100 per year. ATT thinks I should be worth $400-500 to a prospective buyer of the service. I've been a subscriber since 2014, so I might be worth that much, but I'd guess most CR subscribers rarely stay around as long as I have. I'd be curious to know what kind of "churn rates" (the percent of subscribers who drop the service in an average year) CR has. "The churn rate for the top satellite TV services was 7.5%" in 2018. I'd guess CR doesn't qualify as a "top" satellite service.

Basically for a subscriber to be worth $400-500 at CR's current fees, the average subscriber would have to remain with the service for at least four to five years. I think that's unlikely. At 10% churn a subscriber would have generated about $350 after four years. At 20% that falls to about $290..

Keep in mind they have a significantly larger amount of non-subscribed users who bring ad revenue. The $400-500 per subscriber amount is ridiculous, but the actual price tag, whatever it is, goes beyond that.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Megiddo



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Posts: 8143
Location: IL
PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:23 pm Reply with quote
In terms of ad revenue, Twitch is pulling in at least 10x more than Crunchyroll and Amazon was able to buy Twitch for 970 million.

Anything over 500 million for Crunchyroll is absurd I'd say.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Kadmos1



Joined: 08 May 2014
Posts: 12983
Location: In Phoenix but has an 85308 ZIP
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:03 am Reply with quote
Megiddo wrote:
In terms of ad revenue, Twitch is pulling in at least 10x more than Crunchyroll and Amazon was able to buy Twitch for 970 million.

Anything over 500 million for Crunchyroll is absurd I'd say.

Well, if they are to sell Otter Media and keep all of the Otter Media companies with said sale, I think above $500 million would be realistic. In 2014, OM had a $500 million operating income and likely has increased a bit! Maybe offer $1 billion for Otter Media and all its companies but $1 billion for Crunchyroll itself? No!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Beatdigga



Joined: 26 Oct 2003
Posts: 3180
Location: Here!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:40 am Reply with quote
Megiddo wrote:
In terms of ad revenue, Twitch is pulling in at least 10x more than Crunchyroll and Amazon was able to buy Twitch for 970 million.

Anything over 500 million for Crunchyroll is absurd I'd say.


You could make the argument that Twitch doesn’t have IP’s (which is how AT&T is looking at all their content producers now, especially DC Comics) that can be further monetized. You could theoretically make live action adaptations of something Crunchyroll has a business stake in, but Twitch doesn’t have that option.

I don’t think the IP’s justify another $500 million though.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
yuna49



Joined: 27 Aug 2008
Posts: 3310
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:06 am Reply with quote
TarsTarkas wrote:
Streaming services either need to become more like cable or the streaming industry grows with more divergent streaming services being offered, alongside a truly intelligent and ergonomic box (or TV) that makes all the switching and accounts invisible. Until that, cable will be with us for quite awhile.

Roku devices make that pretty easy. Many TVs now have Roku built-in, or you can buy a stick that plugs into an HDMI port and gives you a simple interface where you can consolidate all your services including Crunchyroll and Funimation.

https://www.amazon.com/Roku-Streaming-Stick-HDR-Streaming-Long-range/dp/B075XLWML4/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
DerekL1963
Enjoying the time of EVEEnjoying the time of EVE


Joined: 14 Jan 2015
Posts: 864
Location: Puget Sound
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:21 pm Reply with quote
yuna49 wrote:
TarsTarkas wrote:
Streaming services either need to become more like cable or the streaming industry grows with more divergent streaming services being offered, alongside a truly intelligent and ergonomic box (or TV) that makes all the switching and accounts invisible. Until that, cable will be with us for quite awhile.

Roku devices make that pretty easy. Many TVs now have Roku built-in, or you can buy a stick that plugs into an HDMI port and gives you a simple interface where you can consolidate all your services including Crunchyroll and Funimation.


"Consolidating your services on a single device" isn't really anywhere near "more like cable". The huge advantage of cable is that it Just Works - with a single login and a single interface. A Roku with it's multiple apps and dysfunctional top level search is about as far as you can get from the state Tars is discussing.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
TarsTarkas



Joined: 20 Dec 2007
Posts: 4682
Location: Virginia, United States
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:40 pm Reply with quote
TarsTarkas wrote:
or the streaming industry grows with more divergent streaming services being offered, alongside a truly intelligent and ergonomic box (or TV) that makes all the switching and accounts invisible.

Roku and other devices are not there yet.

Quote:
divergent streaming services
Is equally important.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
dragonrider_cody



Joined: 14 Jun 2008
Posts: 2520
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:59 pm Reply with quote
TarsTarkas wrote:
@Yuna49

Streaming services either need to become more like cable or the streaming industry grows with more divergent streaming services being offered, alongside a truly intelligent and ergonomic box (or TV) that makes all the switching and accounts invisible. Until that, cable will be with us for quite awhile.


There are also problems with the business end as well. Really, the only profitable streaming service is Netflix and its margins are tiny and they carry a very high debt load. Much of their profits are still generated by their DVD business, and help fund their online service. Hulu and Disney+ are still expected to lose money for years to come, and the same is true for HBO Max. CBS All Access probably does better on the profit front than bigger competitors, but that’s mainly because they produce less original content and much of that is paid for by international licensing deals with other services like Netflix and Amazon. However,, those deals will likely go away as Viacom seeks to expand the service outside North America and Australia.

I think Shari Redstone definitely wants to grow Viacom and add content for streaming, but I think they would be looking at more traditional targets like Discovery or AMC Networks. I wouldn’t entirely rule them out making a bid on CR though, but I imagine they would roll much of their technical support and back end operations into CBS Interactive, which already handles both All Access and Showtime Anytime.

Universal was also said to be interested in Funimation before Sony acquired it, and I could see them at least looking into CR. It would provide plenty of content for their Peacock service, and content that would mesh well with the genre entertainment they are launching.

There will definitely have to be changes made to how all these streaming service operate. Ease of use is just once issue, while billing is another. I’m sure we will see more bundles being offered, similar to how you can get Hulu, Disney+, and ESPN for one monthly price. Box makers are also working on making the content more easy to access across multiple apps from one common interface, most notably Apple and Roku. They’re not perfect yet or as easy to navigate as cable, but they are making some impressive improvements.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
John Thacker
SubscriberSubscriber


Joined: 28 Oct 2013
Posts: 873
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:58 pm Reply with quote
dragonrider_cody wrote:
There will definitely have to be changes made to how all these streaming service operate. Ease of use is just once issue, while billing is another. I’m sure we will see more bundles being offered, similar to how you can get Hulu, Disney+, and ESPN for one monthly price. Box makers are also working on making the content more easy to access across multiple apps from one common interface, most notably Apple and Roku. They’re not perfect yet or as easy to navigate as cable, but they are making some impressive improvements.


Most of the bundles offered are because of common ownership. ABC/Disney/ESPN/Hulu have the same owner (after Disney bought out the other Hulu owners); it makes sense to put all that under one bundle. Same with the other really big content groups: CBSViacom with All Access, NBCUniversal/Comcast with Peacock, AT&T/Warner/HBO with HBOMax are all either bundling or trying to put most of their content under one service. (Viacom may kill off PlutoTV eventually, for example.) AT&T/Warner/HBO is experimenting with a "HBOMax has the 'best of' each of our services, but if you want *all* the Crunchyroll stuff, or Boomerang, or whatever, for now you have to still subscribe to the other service.) They're all doing the same thing. In the short run I think that the number of streaming sites is still expanding, as the big content / channel groups decide to run their own streaming services and promote them instead of licensing to Netflix and Amazon.

Roku and Amazon by far have the device marketshare lead, and try to get a share of subscriptions through their devices along with trying to make the other content be channels within the Roku Channel or Amazon Prime Video. The big conglomerate providers are resisting that in the same way that Epic is resisting Apple and Google's App Store fees, which is why Peacock and HBO Max are not available on the devices with 70% marketshare combined.

Those four groups own most of the traditional cable channels in the US, so their bets are hedged even if cable goes away. (And most cable operators do fine providers Internet access, and hate paying to the content providers for the channels that they use as MVPDs, so they're fine with that going away too). Just with those four plus Netflix and Amazon, that's a lot of potential services right there for people to consider subscribing to, even without considering niche services like Crunchyroll or Criterion to get what's not on HBOMax, Funimation, etc.

The other channel owners include:

Fox (smaller after selling a lot off such as FX to Disney, and the divested RSNs)
Discovery
AMC
Hallmark
MeTV
Ion
Movie Studios: Sony (owns Funimation also), Lionsgate (Starz), and MGM own channels to show their movies
Sports networks for individual sports and regional sports channels, some owned by the leagues or teams themselves, some owned by Sinclair now
Shopping channels
Religious channels
Porn
Foreign language channels


Last edited by John Thacker on Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Reply to topic    Anime News Network Forum Index -> Site-related -> Talkback All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Page 2 of 3

 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group