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The declining amounts of TV anime produced since 06.


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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 3782
PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:00 pm Reply with quote
1990 - 119 ---
1991 -152 +33
1992 124 -28
1993 111 -13
1994 114 +3
1995 105 -9
1996 131 +26
1997 119 -12
1998 125 +6
1999 138 +13
Average rate of change 1990-1999: +2.1

2000 108 ---
2001 164 +56*
2002 174 +10
2003 188 +14
2004 204 +16
2005 199 -5
2006 244 +45
2007 249 +5
2008 205 -44
2009 217 +12
2010 185 -32
Average rate of change 2000-2010: +7.7
*WTF???

Average rate of change from 1990-2010: +4.9

(note: I was much, much too tired to do percentage changes for true rates of change, but the average should be good enough. Sorry.)

About that threat title... it's inaccurate. The historic data presented by the graph clearly and indisputably shows anime's production is increasing, not decreasing.

However...

If one is to take the rate of change of the last two years, then one can say that anime production has decreased for the past two years, but it would be an inaccurate statement to represent the anime industry's total production per the graph's larger span of data.

ikillchicken, an observation without taking sides... I also assumed you took the position of anime's decreasing production because of the thread title. Your original post didn't back up the claim nor did it remove the assumption.

I state this because I was originally going to quote you until something much more inaccurate caught my eye. Wink
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ikillchicken



Joined: 12 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 7:38 pm Reply with quote
HellKorn wrote:
But when you take away the anomalies -- 2006 and 2007 -- then you see a consistent output.


Well, no, not really. Both for TV and Total you see a consistent rise each year from 2000 - 2004. Conversely though, if you look at the low 05 as the lone anomaly, you see a near perfect slope up, peaking at 06. Isn't it far more reasonable to assume that rather than dismissing both 06 and 07 as anomalous?

EDIT: Here, let me show you what I mean.


Looking at it as a steady growth shows a whole lot more consistency and less anomalies that looking at it as a stable period.

PetrifiedJello wrote:
ikillchicken, an observation without taking sides... I also assumed you took the position of anime's decreasing production because of the thread title. Your original post didn't back up the claim nor did it remove the assumption.


Is that what's hanging people up? The thread title? Okay, I've changed it to be more specific. I didn't think I needed to be so wordy since I explained what specifically I meant in my post itself where as you said I didn't back up the claim that this showed total number of all types of titles was decreasing (because I wasn't claiming that) nor did I suggest that this fall had been happening over the course of the entire graph. In fact, I explicitly said the opposite in both cases. Apparently people are unclear though so again let me say:

Quote:
OVAs and Movies have remained pretty consistently inconsistent and adding them tends to skew the total a bit. Just looking at TV though you can see a fairly smooth slope peaking in 06 and steadily declining afterward.


Does this clear things up for people?
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Blood-



Joined: 07 Mar 2009
Posts: 20224
PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:17 pm Reply with quote
Here is some information I'd love to have at my fingertips:

1) For anime TV series that get R1 releases, what is the average length of time between those series' Japanese broadcast start date and their release date in R1?

2) What is the average length of time between when an R1 distributor announces the acquistion of an anime series license and its release date?

3) What percentage of anime series licenses that get announced by R1 distribs never actually get released?

4) What percentage of anime series only get a partial release (i.e. a distrib issues a few volumes then stops for whatever reason)?

5) If an anime series is initially released in volumes or parts, what is the average length of time for all those separate parts to be released?

6) What is the average length of time between an anime series separate parts all being released and the release of a Complete Collection box set of that series?
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HellKorn



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:42 pm Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
Well, no, not really. Both for TV and Total you see a consistent rise each year from 2000 - 2004. Conversely though, if you look at the low 05 as the lone anomaly, you see a near perfect slope up, peaking at 06. Isn't it far more reasonable to assume that rather than dismissing both 06 and 07 as anomalous?
That's not quite how it works. The jump from 2005 to 2006 is so far out out of place that I'm not sure how you can't see it as statistically significant. It's like looking at collective polling data of, say, President Obama's approval rating (and please, for the love of Tezuka, no one turn this into a political subject -- I'm merely using what will probably be an accessible example for people). Hope that exhaustion from work would impede my coherency... Say you go over eight months of data, and you get these numbers: 52, 49, 52, 48, 40, 47, 49, 50. (Note: these numbers aren't true, just theoretical.) Over this time period, you wouldn't take away from this his numbers rose, unless you were just looking at the time period of the last four months (but, again, that's not what we're doing here). The fifth month is obviously an anomaly. Now, if you compare it to the previous eight months, where the range was 56% to 59%, then there's an obvious drop -- but that's only comparing those two sets of data. The same thing holds here, with the different decades -- and in this case, 2000, 2006 and 2007 are rather peculiar compared to the rest of the decade. That make sense?

I guess what I don't understand is why you seem unwilling to acknowledge the spike for 2006 as being irregular, as the gradual gains (and drops) preceding that year from the data culled indicates otherwise.

Edit: Also, please read larinon's post.


Last edited by HellKorn on Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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dtm42



Joined: 05 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:45 pm Reply with quote
Blood- wrote:
Here is some information I'd love to have at my fingertips:


All interesting questions, and I personally would be fascinated to see the answers, but all of them fall outside the scope of this topic. Feel free to start a new thread though.
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ikillchicken



Joined: 12 Feb 2007
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Location: Vancouver
PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:54 pm Reply with quote
HellKorn wrote:
I guess what I don't understand is why you seem unwilling to acknowledge the spike for 2006 as being irregular, as the gradual gains (and drops) preceding that year from the data culled indicates otherwise.


Well actually, I'll certainly acknowledge that a jump of 39 in one year is irregular. That's precisely why I'd call 05 anomalous though. In effect, we're both recognizing this but simply attempting to reconcile it in opposite ways. Let me try and explain.

I think you're taking for granted that just because the difference between 05 and 06 is irregular it means the irregularity lies in the figure from 06. That's not necessarily the case though. There's two figures involved in that jump. There's the number from 06 but also the number from 05. If 06 is anomalously high then that could cause the difference to be so large. Also though, if 05 was anomalously low that would also result in a overlarge difference.

So how do we determine which it is? Well, let's look at the pattern thus far: The number of TV series produced rose from 57 to 121 from 2000 to 2004. That's an increase of 64 and an average increase of 16 per year. That means that if the trend continued, the expected value for 2005 would be 137 and for 2006 it would be 153. Now let's compare that the the actual values: 119 for 05 and 158 for 06. That means that 06 was actually only 5 over what you'd expect based on the industry's growth pattern thus far. 05 on the other hand is 18 below the expected result. Hence it seems much more likely that the source of the irregular jump of 39 lies not in an unusually large 06 but rather in an unusually small 05.
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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:26 am Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
Is that what's hanging people up?

That's why I stated the thread title was inaccurate, not you. Wink

Quote:
...since I explained what specifically I meant in my post...

You idiot. I can't believe you expect people to walk away with understanding what you mean when they've already determine what you said.
Razz

Just kidding. Again, I emphasize you didn't connect the title. In a virtual world where more than six words are consecutively joined, you're asking for trouble if you think people won't skim 50% of them.

Short. Concise. To the point. Or else.

Now, it's time to really let you have it. Wink

Quote:
Isn't it far more reasonable to assume that rather than dismissing both 06 and 07 as anomalous?

Think of it this way: a cute girl gives you anywhere between 8 and 10 pieces of candy every day. Over time, you will come to realize the average is going to be around 9 pieces of candy.

Then for two days out of the blue, the girl gives you 15 and 16 pieces of candy respectively before returning to the 8-10 pieces.

This is what your latest graph clearly shows and you've proven this by the yellow line you drew. It's too bad you didn't draw it all the way through, because you'd clearly see the average is actually up, not down.

Imagine the blue bars were glasses of water attached to each other with a stopper system to retain their levels. You press a button and gravity takes over.

Using your yellow line as a test marker, where do you think every blue bar will fall in comparison to the yellow line?

They'll be higher, not lower.

I'm sorry, ikillchicken, I know you see a decline in production but this is not a representation of the anime industry's ability to continue those productions.

I can prove it: what IF the next two years show an increase on both the green and blue bars?

Numbers don't lie and this graph is crystal clear with its message: "I'm balancing out to my normal level now that my anomalies are over. Thank goodness, because now I can actually represent the production of anime has increased."
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Crisha
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Joined: 21 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:17 am Reply with quote
HellKorn wrote:
That's not quite how it works. The jump from 2005 to 2006 is so far out out of place that I'm not sure how you can't see it as statistically significant.

I guess what I don't understand is why you seem unwilling to acknowledge the spike for 2006 as being irregular, as the gradual gains (and drops) preceding that year from the data culled indicates otherwise.

Edit: Also, please read larinon's post.


Except, if you're talking about statistical significance, larinon's post concluded that there was no statistical significance. But no official conclusion can be drawn from the data because it doesn't appear to be normally distributed (a distribution analysis would need to be performed on the data). So nothing can be said about statistical significance here other than assumptions and what the data "appears" to be.

2006 and 2007 seem like they could be anomalies, yes, but don't drag significant difference into it.


Blood- wrote:
What percentage of anime series only get a partial release (i.e. a distrib issues a few volumes then stops for whatever reason)?


Whatever it may be, I'm certain Viz will skew the data. Laughing
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ikillchicken



Joined: 12 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:28 pm Reply with quote
PetrifiedJello:

I understand what you're saying if you choose to look at the average. But explain to me why we should look at the average. If it fluctuated back and forth between 8 and 10, that would make sense. It didn't though. It went from 8 to 10. That doesn't indicate that production is stable or hovering around the average. It indicates that production is growing from 8 to 10 and therefore, the most reasonable conclusion to draw would be that in the years following that period it would continue to grow in the established pattern.
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TJR



Joined: 13 Jul 2009
Posts: 223
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:39 am Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:

It's interesting to see. There's obviously a ton of speculation about the situation the industry is in and whether it's getting worse or better. Purely in terms of volume output though it seems it is definitely been shrinking and continues to shrink. I guess you can interpret that as either cause for concern or simply the natural shrinking that follows a boom. Although if the latter is true, I have to wonder just how much things have to shrink before they stabilize.


It's definitely post-boom shrinkage. In Japan, the anime DVD market (which boomed around the turn of the century, hence the massive increase in production) isn't what it used to be, so the financiers are commissioning fewer shows and decreasing the allocated budgets.

Whether this leads to higher quality remains to be seen (in the short run, I'd expect quality to remain unchanged), but it's apparently a difficult time for people working in the industry. Lining up enough work has become a real concern.

The other issue is that manga/book publishers (who commission all those adaptations to promote their lineups) are always looking for cheaper ways to advertise.
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RHachicho



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:48 pm Reply with quote
I have to agree with Abunai and others that you're graph as it stands can only really be taken as a rough interpratation of a system as complex as Anime sales. I do not believe that you have grasped that there are too many factors in what you are studying to adequetly represent them all in the graphing method that you have chosen. And therefore such "research" is prone to erroneous conclusions.

Also the very fact that you posted this graph up under the topic heading of "decline in the anime industry" or something similar. States you're own interpretation of the data quite clearly. To then state that you where merely empiracally providing data for discussion seems like a cop out of the highest order. In addition you display a clear ignorance of correct data interpretation. I will admit I am no expert myself. But as I understand it in any intepretation of data over time there is always a "norm" even if it is not considered or displayed in the original intepretation of the data. After all abberations exist because they have a norm to abberate from. Even if there is no period of "stability" where that norm was displayed it still exists.
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ikillchicken



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:18 am Reply with quote
Ah jeez, not this shit again...

RHachicho wrote:
I have to agree with Abunai and others that you're graph as it stands can only really be taken as a rough interpratation of a system as complex as Anime sales.


Well then let me tell you the same thing I told Abunai: I am not currently claiming, nor have I ever claimed that it is. This is really painfully simple. How is it that you read this whole topic including my conversation with Abunai and yet you do not understand this?

Quote:
In addition you display a clear ignorance of correct data interpretation. I will admit I am no expert myself. But as I understand it in any intepretation of data over time there is always a "norm" even if it is not considered or displayed in the original intepretation of the data. After all abberations exist because they have a norm to abberate from. Even if there is no period of "stability" where that norm was displayed it still exists.


Interesting. This sounds a lot like a guy admitting to not know about data interpretation while simultaneous calling me ignorant for not being familiar with a single particular term used in data interpretation that doesn't even actually apply to the issue that was being discussed (stability). If I recall correctly, this is the same gentleman who also called me a hypocrite. I hope the humor of this is not lost on you.

Quote:
Also the very fact that you posted this graph up under the topic heading of "decline in the anime industry" or something similar. States you're own interpretation of the data quite clearly. To then state that you where merely empiracally providing data for discussion seems like a cop out of the highest order.


1) If you are going to use a big fancy word, you should probably learn to spell it.

2) I never said anything about being empirical. I did say that this shows definitively is that the number of TV shows has been declining since 06 if that's what you're referring to. Now unless you want to claim that a number which falls, then falls again, and then falls two more times is in fact, not declining...then you do NOT disagree with anything I have said this graph shows definitively.

3) The fact that you feel the need to not just disagree with me but rather, to attack me personally over this silly perceived hypocrisy only serves to demonstrate just how desperate you are to contradict me. Just because you saw the words 'decline' and 'anime' in the same sentence doesn't mean you need to get all defensive and fly off the handle insisting that I'm wrong despite only half understanding what I've said.
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abunai
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:09 am Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
1) If you are going to use a big fancy word, you should probably learn to spell it.

If you can't deal with the arguments, you go for the typos?

ikillchicken wrote:
2) I never said anything about being empirical. I did say that this shows definitively is that the number of TV shows has been declining since 06 if that's what you're referring to. Now unless you want to claim that a number which falls, then falls again, and then falls two more times is in fact, not declining...then you do NOT disagree with anything I have said this graph shows definitively.

If you're going to use a big fancy word like "empirical", then you should understand what it means. For instance, that it refers to conclusions based in data (whether they be test results or industry production data), rather than theory. In fact, exactly what you are claiming to present.

ikillchicken wrote:
3) The fact that you feel the need to not just disagree with me but rather, to attack me personally over this silly perceived hypocrisy only serves to demonstrate just how desperate you are to contradict me. Just because you saw the words 'decline' and 'anime' in the same sentence doesn't mean you need to get all defensive and fly off the handle insisting that I'm wrong despite only half understanding what I've said.

Stones and glass houses. You've done nothing in this thread but to make personal attacks on people who disagree with you. When you've stuck to arguing the facts, you have occasionally made some good points -- but you've taken every bit of this so personally that it has obscured any reasonable argument you've had to offer, and you've reduced any discussion to "You don't like my arguments because you're nasty and mean." That is NO way to conduct a discussion.

So, off with my I'm-just-a-user hat, and on with my moderator hat. This is official: I warn you not to indulge in any further personal attacks, in this thread or any other. If you can't respond to the arguments in a balanced way, then don't post.

- abunai
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dtm42



Joined: 05 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:44 am Reply with quote
abunai wrote:
So, off with my I'm-just-a-user hat, and on with my moderator hat. This is official: I warn you not to indulge in any further personal attacks, in this thread or any other. If you can't respond to the arguments in a balanced way, then don't post.


I'm not saying ikillchicken is innocent here, because he's not. He's made some belligerent posts to be sure, and allowed - perhaps even unintentionally steered - the debate to get to a point where he gets all defensive for no real reason. However, you have - once again - made a heavy-handed threat where a quiet word on the side might have sufficed.

Were his words really worthy of an official warning? I've seen you use far worse language than that in your various put-downs, some of which would have resulted in a temp-ban if it were coming from someone who was not a Moderator. The message you are sending is, "Do as I say, not as I do."
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abunai
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:26 am Reply with quote
dtm42 wrote:
However, you have - once again - made a heavy-handed threat where a quiet word on the side might have sufficed.

As the multiple recipient of tempbans and warnings from moderators, you should understand the difference between a threat and a warning. A moderator warning is just that, a warning. It means "don't do it again" and it means "keep your eye on the ball".

dtm42 wrote:
Were his words really worthy of an official warning?

Obviously, that is my opinion.

dtm42 wrote:
I've seen you use far worse language than that in your various put-downs, some of which would have resulted in a temp-ban if it were coming from someone who was not a Moderator.

No, you have not. I can get very harsh, but I keep my eye on the arguments. Look through my posts, and you'll find plenty of "that argument is stupid, because..." but very little "you are stupid". Also, you will find one thing completely missing in my posts which is unpleasantly pervasive throughout all of your posts and those of Ikillchicken -- and that is, whining when the argument doesn't go your way.

Yes, whining. Every time a thread develops where either of you is involved, and people dare to disagree with you, it turns into this. The other users are being stupid or nasty or mean to you, the moderators are big old ogres who won't let you play, etc.

Your level of "discussion" doesn't even belong on a playground, and it certainly doesn't belong here. That is all I have to say on it, and that is all I want to hear from you. Don't take this as license to start another of your tirades, because I am completely out of patience with you.

Now, keep the discussion on-topic and to the point in this thread, or it will get locked.

- abunai
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