Forum - View topicANNCast - Shermanator Salvation
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Ashen Phoenix
 Posts: 2910 |
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This had to be one of if not my most favorite episode of ANNCast thus far.
To call it enlightening would be an understatement. I am so thankful to Zac and Justin for having Mr. Sherman on to chat, clear up some things, shed some light, if you will, on the enormous explosion from the forums and the fans in general, and above all speak from the heart to the fans from an "industry person's" standpoint. EDIT: Forgot to say - in hopes that it helps you to not lose faith in the quieter, non-hateful fans - I love Kenshin's dub, especially the hero's verbal tic. I think the localization of that in particular was perfect, and I couldn't accept another company's rendition now if my life depended on it. Regardless of my overall feelings towards Champloo as a show, I found that dub, too, to be excellent and supremely natural to listen to. |
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agila61
 Posts: 3213 Location: NE Ohio |
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Since Funimation has seen rising market share, if they are doing as much as they ever were, then that is a shrinking total market. |
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PetrifiedJello
Posts: 3782 |
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Bingo. Everyone is in agreement prices for anime have come down, but this still has not caused market growth. In the graph tempest created, we actually see a decrease in growth. What's important to note are the years 2002-2006, in which singles dominated. In 2007, revenues were down, not up despite the cost of anime dropping due to box set releases. That's why, ikillchicken, lowering costs of DVDs won't fix the problem. If 100 people buy $20 titles, and those same bought $50 titles, that's a loss, not a gain. The market must expand in order to restore revenues those $50 titles made. $20 will never recoup the revenues lost from $50 unless 3 more people buy $20 box sets who didn't buy DVDs before. I simply don't believe this will happen. I'm guessing here, but I'd see a temporary market growth no larger than 10% overall. Even at $20, people still aren't going to buy titles they're not interested in. One other thing to note: lowering prices of DVDs will mean retailers will be required to purchase more in order to receive the wholesale price. Given most retailers are opting out of carrying large quantities of DVDs now, this is just another thorn in the problem. Alas, nothing to do now but ride this train as long as we can. Buy tickets or ride for free, but eventually, all trains arrive at their final destination. |
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agila61
Posts: 3213 Location: NE Ohio |
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You have no evidence on that point. Total sales volume mixes together the general state of demand and the effects of firm pricing policy in one big stew. We can only go directly from sales volume to general state of demand when there are stable pricing policies. And we can only go directly from sales volume to pricing policy when there is a stable general state of demand. And this unit elasticity idea you keep setting forward that the average amount spent in the market is a constant, and dropping price points just spreads the fixed pot of money more thinly - would also mean total sales revenue being the same, while sales volumes increased by the same percentage that sales prices dropped. But that sure as hell didn't happen. Indeed, much of the drop in retail price points and therefore gross revenue per unit happened entirely outside of the company's control, in the shift from MSRP retailers to online discount retailers. But the companies were there at the time, with different product at different price points, and with the same product in different channels at different price points, and they could see which price points were generating sales and which were mostly generating returns. If the revenue streams they see available are the ones at the lower price points, then they have to chase those revenue streams. |
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PetrifiedJello
Posts: 3782 |
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To prevent confusion, I was talking customer prices coming down, and yes, there is more than ample evidence prices have come down. Even from singles to box sets, there's a savings of at least $25 for a complete collection. I've no idea if distributor costs have come down in acquiring a series. Though, I'm likely to believe they've gone up, adding fuel to the fire. |
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dragonrider_cody
Posts: 2541 |
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Actually, according to just about every industry source, licensing costs have come down. I'd imagine dubbing costs have come down, as well, they really don't have much of a choice. Manufacturing costs should be declining, particularly in bluray. However, I don't know if wholesale or distribution prices have declined. Also, to respond to the post about Funimation doing as much as they have the past couple years, how do you explain the months where they only have ONE actual new release? The majority of their solicitations for the past six months have been re-re-releases. It seems they are in ADV mode as of late. |
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agila61
Posts: 3213 Location: NE Ohio |
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You said:
Its the second half where you argue cause and effect. "Price drop did not cause market growth". That's what you have no evidence for, since the relevant comparison is to what the sales would have been if the prices had not been dropped. |
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ikillchicken
 Posts: 7272 Location: Vancouver |
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I think you'll need some different data to prove your point. Talking about number of releases is going to be tremendously skewed. We're specifically talking about switching from 3-6 single disk releases per series to 1-3 sets per series. Arguably, anything less than a 50% drop in the number of releases is actually a positive growth in the number of series. Of course, that doesn't take into account re-releases and all kinds of stuff. Generally, it's just a bad indicator. Although I should also add that I appear to have messed up the dates quite a bit. Saying things were better a half year ago is wrong. Looking at it now, it appears that we really saw this change occurring at the start of 2009. So a better comparison would be to look at...maybe 09 - 10 versus 08 - 09. I'll concede that in more recent months we may be seeing things turn downward again. I don't know. That's not strictly relevant to my point though. After the switch over by some companies from singles that took place roughly in very late 08 and early 09 we definitely saw a recovery.
True, but at the same time doesn't funimation's rising market share tell you something? They've been the most eager and efficient in adopting half/third season releases and they're doing awfully well at least as far as anime goes. Also, look at Section 23. They looked like they were toast a while ago but they've absolutely dived on complete collections and half season sets and now they're actually looking like one of the stronger companies. I'm sure part of their recovery also involved not dubbing but then again, the fact that they're now dubbing again and even going back and dubbing some of their sub only stuff seems to indicate that was merely a cash flow problem. On the other hand, Media Blasters is still dicking around with singles and apparently they're on their deathbed. Then there's Bandai. They've really only managed to put a couple shows out there in the new format. They've certainly been more adaptive than MB but far less efficient than Funi or S23. They've played around with various quick, sub only singles followed by dual audio singles. It's been a huge mess and they too are supposedly not doing so good. So yeah. Maybe you're correct that only part of the industry has shown improvement and when you factor in other companies, the indusry overall is still in a slide. If the part that's still shrinking is that part that hasn't lowered prices then that just proves my point though. |
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dragonrider_cody
Posts: 2541 |
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Actually, in the last half of 2009, the majority of series were being released in box sets already. All of Sentai's, Nozomi's, and the majority of Funimation and Bandai's series were being done in some sort of box set. Right Stuf and Viz with select titles were the only notable hold outs. If you were talking about 2008, then you would have some point, or even the first half of 2009. But I think this is a fairly good indicator, though not entirely accurate as you've pointed out. Also, it's worth noting that Funimation in particular has been using a large percentage of re-releases to flesh out their schedule this year. In fact, if you look at their July solicitations, they only have one new series scheduled, My Bride Is A Mermaid. http://animecornerstore.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-04-26T11%3A55%3A00-04%3A00&max-results=15 Don't forget that we've only have three new licenses from Bandai in the past year, two of which were Haruhi related, and the other being Kannagi. If you subtract out the re-re-releases, then the numbers looker even starker in contrast. True there were a lot of re-releases in the second half of 2009 as well, but companies like Sentai and Funimation will still balancing it out well with new series as well. |
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ikillchicken
Posts: 7272 Location: Vancouver |
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Come on, at least read my entire post before you jump to correct me. What did I say in the whole second part of my post which you've ignored? I said essentially what you're saying here. That the transition to box sets actually happen prior to the last half of 09. I therefore conceded that I was wrong in saying that there had been a recovery in the last half year. I admitted that was not accurate so there's really no point in you carrying on about how it's inaccurate. We agree on that. I misspoke. What I should have said is that following period in late 08/early 09 in which there was a switch to boxed sets the industry's health improved.
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dragonrider_cody
Posts: 2541 |
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Actually you argued we saw a recovery, when my point has been explicitly that we haven't. Overall sales by both units sold and revenue are down. That is not a recovery.
As you said, 2009 was the year we transitioned to primarily to box sets. The releases in 2010 are down from that, as are sales. This is not a recover of any type. Its a continued decline.
This was most certainly not the case, even from 2008 to 2009. Sales and licenses overall declined in these years as well. This was the main part I was correcting and disagreeing with, as well as you stating that comparing sales from one quarter in 2009 to another in 2010 was not a fair assessment. It's not my fault you misspoke. Of course, I would also disagree that Media Blasters is on their "death bed". They are in a tough spot, but they're far from dead right now. |
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ikillchicken
Posts: 7272 Location: Vancouver |
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"As you said, 2009 was the year we transitioned to primarily to box sets. The releases in 2010 are down from that, as are sales. This is not a recover of any type. Its a continued decline."
That's not what I said. I said the change took place in late 08 and very early 09. Obviously you want to compare the period before and after the change. The period before the change was mid 08 and the period after was mid 09. Hence, those are the periods you should compare. Not 2009 in general to 2010 in general. That would imply the change happened roughly at the end of 09 which is incorrect. |
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agila61
Posts: 3213 Location: NE Ohio |
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Quite: the shift to box sets as a reaction to the ongoing decline in sales volume. From the outside, the question whether it was the right business move is posing the counterfactual - what would sales have looked like in 2010 if the R1 licensors and distributors had not reacted? But from the inside, when an organization hunkers down, its the underpreformers that get the chop first. That's a far more likely explanation of the move to box-sets - not some sweeping business strategy, but a look at the sales and returns - and the preference of the different channels for different product - and in one struggling anime distributor after another, it was the individual volume releases that were getting the chop. |
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Charred Knight
 Posts: 3085 |
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If this happens than it's already a matter of time until anime dies period. Their is nothing to replace package media, and anime in Japan has shrunk so much in Japan that its only a matter of time before the flops overtake the successes and we have mass studio shutdown. |
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maaya
Posts: 976 |
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Please post those online as well. for those who can't come to the conventions. I'm sure there are a lot of references being missed or at least unclear. ^^ |
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