Forum - View topicThe declining amounts of TV anime produced since 06.
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larinon
 Posts: 992 Location: Midland, TX |
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One other thing that might be a factor, at least in the sharp increase during the middle of the decade: It seems to me that it became more common during that time period to start producing more 12-13 episode series and less 24-26 episode series. So another question, which would seemingly require more painstaking research, is whether or not the actual number of episodes being produced is all that different.
I think I would agree, though, that they are now decreasing, though it may not be as drastic as it seems. |
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abunai
Old Regular
 Posts: 5463 Location: 露命 |
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Okay, sure, let's stick to the numbers for TV series alone, ignoring the rest. And let's also ignore, for the moment, any discussion of what the number of episodes (or rather, total animation hours and minutes) is for each individual title. Let's just stick to the number of titles of TV anime. So, you look at data and say: "Since 2006, there has been a steady decline in number of TV anime titles produced." And that's right. But it's only a part of the picture, and I think you're missing the proper perspective. You see, you're looking at 2006 as the norm, even though you have data in front of you that indicates otherwise. The following are objectively true from the data: "From 2000-2005, the number of TV anime produced varied between 57 and 121, with an average of 97.3 anime per year." "In 2006, the number of TV anime produced spiked to a high of 158, an increase of 62% over the average of the preceding years." "Since the 2006 spike, there has been a gradual reduction of the number of TV anime produced, trending towards a return to the pre-spike average of 97 per year. The current number produced is still slightly over pre-spike averages, though." You'll notice that all these statements objectively fit the facts presented in your data -- yet they present an entirely different interpretation, seeing the 2006 production figures as an aberration, and the current situation as a return to the previous state of affairs. Data doesn't lie. But people are always eager to tell themselves the story they like to hear (preferably a nice and dramatic Chicken Little story about the sky falling and "OMGWTFBBQ no more anime"), and to look at the data as confirming their bias. - abunai I'm always amazed at how difficult most people find data analysis to be. |
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dtm42
Posts: 14084 Location: currently stalking my waifu |
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Okay, a few things.
I'm curious that 2010 is on there despite not having finished yet. Is it a projection? 2006 and 2007 do look like aberrations. Even if 2005 increased by the same rate as the few years preceding it, 2006 is still above the trend line in that case. 2009 is the third highest figure on the graph. Not too bad really. This would be pretty dull work, but as some people have said the graph does not take into account number of episodes, only number of shows. Certainly would be interesting to see how those stack up (literally). Huh. Is there any way to get data for pre-2000? Look ikillchicken, I generally agree with you on this. But people have raised some good points. There's no doubt that there was a buildup and there was a peak. But the data before 2000 is unknown, post-2007 data is unclear, and episode counts aren't factored in. You've put in good groundwork, but you haven't proved what you think you have. |
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ikillchicken
 Posts: 7272 Location: Vancouver |
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yuna49 was nice enough to send me a site with a list of licenses by date. I went ahead and threw together a chart.
Year Prod. Lic. 2003 188 74 2004 204 100 2005 199 71 2006 244 69 2007 249 99 2008 205 42 2009 217 61 2010 185 89 
Unfortunately the data only went back to 03 and of course this will have some margin of error as it is based on when licenses were announced rather than actually agreed upon You can of course see the crash in 08. You can also see that licensing has shot right back up in the last couple years which is hopefully a good sign. (The years not over yet either). EDIT: As per request: Extended the chart to the 90s. http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/7607/charta.png {MOD EDIT: Don't use IMG tags for images larger than the forum can take -- and using URL tags to the same image are redundant. Removed URL tags from first image, and IMG tags from second, larger, image. -- abunai} Year TV Other Total 1990 23 96 119 1991 36 116 152 1992 39 85 124 1993 23 88 111 1994 32 82 114 1995 39 66 105 1996 42 89 131 1997 46 73 119 1998 75 50 125 1999 83 55 138
Well I based it off of ANN's encyclopedia which already has everything that's been announced for the fall TV schedule which takes us through the end of the year. I expect most movies and OVAs for that period have been announced by now although there may be some missing there. (Again though, TV was the main aspect I was focusing on).
No, I agree in that regard. Even with the decline we're not in bad shape.
Sure. I don't have time now but I can do at least a quick breakdown for the previous decade later.
 What do to you think I think I've proved? All I've really claimed as far as I can tell is that TV series have been decreasing steadily since 06. This seems pretty definitive to me. I've said it's possible anime overall has decreased although I'll admit that is harder to say. That's all.
Did you actually have a reason as to why we shouldn't? I offered my reasoning as to why we should. You've offered nothing but your usual smugness and condescension.
No actually, it's you who is assuming that 00-05 is the norm. I don't think there is a norm. Why do you assume there even is? The data in front of you indicates otherwise. There is no period during which anime has been stable. It is perpetually either increasing or decreasing. Hence comparing the average from 00-05 is totally arbitrary. It might make sense to do so if there wasn't already a noticeable pattern and it went up and down. It doesn't though. During this period, the changes in total anime were +56, +10, +14, +16, -5, and changes in TV anime were +35, -1, +18, +14, -2. Most basic common sense tells us that this is because the industry was in a period of growth rather than a stable period or a a period where it is fluctuating back and forth around a norm point.
Yes yes. Everyone is stupid but you. We're all wrong and it's just a horrendous chore to explain it to us. Here's a real wild and crazy idea: Why don't you take a tiny little break from being oh so infinitely superior and go ahead and point out where exactly I said this meant the end of anime, or said anything dramatic for that matter. Use specific quotes. |
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larinon
Posts: 992 Location: Midland, TX |
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Looking at the data from 1990-2010, I went ahead and did about as much statistics as I cared to do at 2 am (i.e. nothing real serious).
Since the data from the 1990s is not separated into movies and OVAs, I went ahead and added those two numbers for the 2000s. Interestingly, the only outlier that appeared was the number of Movies/OVAs in 1991 being abnormally high. The cutoff number was 112 and the data value was 116, so it was not too much of an outlier but still more than two standard deviations from the mean. Also it was the only data value more than two standard deviations from the mean. The only other values that came close to two standard deviations from the mean were: the number of TV series in 2006 (158, with the cutoff being 168) the total number of productions in 2007 (249, with the cutoff being 253) Additionally, if we only look at the data from 2000-2010, most of the same things are true, except that the year 2000 itself is a complete aberration, with all three values more than two standard deviations below the mean. Now the problem with all of the stuff I just wrote is that the data set is not really normally distributed. So it probably means nothing. (here's what I had if anyone cares to look at it) |
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abunai
Old Regular
Posts: 5463 Location: 露命 |
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Wrong. Look at my post again. What I said, quite unequivocally, was that your assumption (of a quantitative decline since 2006), while true, was only half the story -- and I went on to say that the numbers could equally well support a theory that 2006 was an aberration, and that the trend since then hasn't been a decline but a return to business as usual. You are the one desperately hanging on to your theory, despite the fact that the numbers do not support it. In fact, looking at your expanded chart going back into the 1990s, it looks much more likely that 2006 is the aberration.
I don't have time to do the actual number crunching, but just from looking at your graph, I can see that there is a definite "normal state" of anime produced, 1990-2000, averaging about 120-130 a year. For 2001-2005, this average increases slightly, but still remains fairly steady for the period. After that comes 2006, which is a severe spike in the data, and 2007-2010, which reflect a period of gradual reduction following the spike (but still higher than pre-spike averages). As I said, you are correct in saying that there has been a decline, if you qualify that statement by making it clear that you mean "since the boom in 2006".
The phrase "statistical significance" is Greek to you, yes? The variations you mention are not large enough to represent a statistical significance, and they reflect simple variations around a statistical mean. Look at your own graph. EDIT: I notice larinon makes more or less the same point.
Common sense is, regrettably, not all that common. But yes, the industry did experience a growth in production. Looking at your extended graph (1990s and 2000s), it appears obvious that the industry production falls into the four distinct periods I mentioned above (i.e. a "norm" in the 1990s, a precursor of the "anime boom" causing a slight growth 2001-2005, a "boom" year 2006, and a period of contraction following the boom, 2007-2010).
Oh, I'm sorry... did I hurt your little feelings by not instantly leaping to the same half-baked conclusions as you did? By not taking at face value your objectively incomplete analysis of the data you presented? By not wholeheartedly adopting your cherished measures of anime's health by simple quantities of anime produced? Why, mercy me, what a nasty old ogre I am. - abunai Peer review is merciless and unrelenting. That's what makes the difference between science and faith. |
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Frazmataz
 Posts: 103 Location: Sheffield, UK |
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Interesting stuff here. Looking at the 1990-2009, I think it's pretty safe to say that there is no norm for the quantity of anime production in this period - as ikillchicken says, it perpetually increases and decreases.
What I find most interesting here is how comparatively little TV anime was made in the early nineties, with movies and OVAs being by far the dominant format, only to be finally overtaken by TV in 1998. Anyone feel like taking the graph back to 1980?  While we're at it, might as well take it all the way back to Astro Boy 
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abunai
Old Regular
Posts: 5463 Location: 露命 |
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Let me guess: you didn't read the thread, you just looked at the pretty pictures. The whole point of both ikillchicken's and my positions is that there is a variation, we just don't agree on what that variation is or what it signifies. Since my point is that there is a juncture at 2006, representing a sudden spike, then it doesn't make much sense to look at the whole period and say it "increases and decreases", does it? That's stating the obvious, and completely sidesteps the discussion. You might also want to look up the meaning of "perpetual" before using it again. Try again -- this time, read the discussion and think before posting. - abunai |
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Frazmataz
Posts: 103 Location: Sheffield, UK |
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I read every single post and looked at all the graphs before posting, so I'll thank you for not patronising me. As for the spike in 2006, it simply follows the trend from 1997 till 2007 - it only looks like a spike when compared to 2005's figures. I'll grant you that 'increasing and decreasing' is an obvious comment to make. But the point - that there is no norm - still stands. There is a steady decrease in quatntity from 91 to 95, then a steady increase from 97 to 2007, then a decrease from 2007 to 2010, with 96, 2000, 2005 and 2008 being anomalies that don't fit the trend. There isn't a single stable period in there. Let's try this again, shall we? Without being condescending this time
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PetrifiedJello
Posts: 3782 |
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This statement is inaccurate. Anyone who knows how to look at a graph and estimate a rate in change can obviously see stable periods. These periods are between 1990-1999 and 2000-2010. If anything, the graph clearly shows precisely a change in stability. Look at the years 1999, 2000, and 2001. There is absolutely no way the anime market could generate the number of titles in 2001 from the assumed revenues of the titles produced in 2000. The rate of change between 1990-1999 is shattered by that of 2000-2001. 2001 is also unique for its distribution of the type of anime. Look at the previous decade again. Closer, this time. See what happened? The number of TV productions and the number of "other" closely coincide for the first time ever. This tells me there was a huge introduction of revenue into the anime industry in 2000-2001 which the anime industry could not do on its own. Now, very carefully, look at the bars from 2002-2010. The rate of change isn't severe and thus, the "decline" is inaccurate. It's almost identical to the rate of change from 1990-1999. I can guess why a graph like this was made and it's no secret the data is trying to relate to other "non licensed" forms of anime which is causing the "decline". However, those who wish to go this route had best remember there were several external distributors closing shop and re-structuring which will have an affect on these numbers. The mere fact that, despite these losses, the industry seems stable is more than proof the anime industry is still very profitable. It may be that it's just not as profitable as, say, 2006? The thread title is inaccurate based on my observation of the data. Not that it matters given I've always stood my ground that the anime industry is doing just fine and only those who can't accept the truth have a hard time dealing with "other" issues regarding anime. |
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Frazmataz
Posts: 103 Location: Sheffield, UK |
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I think I get what you're trying to say - that because the trends are gradual changes, they are periods of stability for the industry? If so, I'm not sure I agree with that interpretation. If the amount of anime produced one year is dependent on the revenue earned by the industry the previous year, as you suggest, then surely the periods of steady decline show that the industry hasn't earned enough money, each year, to produce the same amount of anime as in the previous year? Is that 'stability'? |
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PetrifiedJello
Posts: 3782 |
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Precisely. An example: 
(blue bar should be titles licensed, not titles released) Note the green bar. It's nearly a straight line and it ends on an increase despite a decrease in the number of titles licensed. I could derive from this the more titles licensed, the less revenue they make per title. Makes sense when the buying market shows no signs of change in this time span.
I can't say if the anime industry relies on the money of previous years to continue. I simply speculated that in 2000-01, the graph shows an explosion which doesn't match any data in the decade before it. Even if I look at 1995, the jump in 1996 wasn't that huge. What changed in 2001 to get such a large spike?
When the rate of change over time is near zero, that is the definition of stability. I may take a few minutes tonight when I get home to look at the graph and do a rate of change analysis. Abunai picked out the average the same way I did, and between us, I have to say I agree the rate of change isn't significant to justify a "decline", especially when 2001-2010 is still trying to fall back to the stability of the 90s. I find it extremely difficult when, prior to the bubble burst, there were over 450 anime studios, and with about 250 now, the same number of titles can be produced. That's just impossible or we've got some artists really, really hurting from hand cramps doing animation 24/7/364 (hey... give 'em xmas at least). |
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Frazmataz
Posts: 103 Location: Sheffield, UK |
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Ah, I see. Your diagram made it much clearer
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ikillchicken
Posts: 7272 Location: Vancouver |
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Before we go any further, can you please summarize what exactly you consider 'my theory' to be. I don't think you're even close to what I've actually said.
Well yeah, sort of. If you give movies and OVAs the same weight as TV shows. You seem to have abandoned your complaint that we ought to weigh it by running time though. Obviously we don't have the exact data to do that but you can surely see that all those years in the early to mid 90s were at least two thirds movies and OVAs. Hence while it may be true that the total number of titles remained somewhat constant, the fact that the number of TV series steadily increased and the number of other productions fell indicates that the actual volume of animation produced was increasing.
If you're trying to tell me that even though the number of TV shows increased every year but 3 (2 of which feature a decline of 2 or less) between 93 and 05 and in doing so, grew from 23 to 119...that's not significant or indicative of growth then yeah. I clearly don't understand statistics.
Yes Abunai. That's why people get pissed off at you. It's because you disagree with them. The internet is just such an easy going place that disagreement is practically unheard of and when a wild n' crazy maverick like yourself comes along...people just can't handle it. It can't possibly have anything to do with the fact that you seem to enter any dispute with the mindset that you're unquestionably right and everyone else is stupid for not having realized it already which in turn you take as license to be as insufferably smug and condescending as is humanly possible. No...that first explanation makes much more sense. (Notice how I'm getting along fine with everyone else in the thread despite many of them disagreeing with me, and Frazmataz is getting along fine with PJ despite them disagreeing and yet when it comes to dealing with you...) |
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HellKorn
Posts: 1669 Location: Columbus, OH |
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I think it's already been said before, but if you're talking about how anime production -- particularly for shows -- isn't as impressive in the past few years since 2006, then that's fine. But when you take away the anomalies -- 2006 and 2007 -- then you see a consistent output. |
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