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Hollywood Alita: Battle Angel Film Tracks to Earn US$50 Million at U.S. Box Office


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unready



Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 399
Location: Illinois, USA
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:01 pm Reply with quote
Shay Guy wrote:
Okay, I'll bite. I'm totally clueless about how box office tracking works, but... how did they have an estimate two weeks before the movie opens?


If movie theaters aren't booking it, either fewer theaters or fewer showings, that means they think it won't do well. In the meantime, since movie theaters aren't booking it, it also means people are going to have a hard time finding someplace to see it.

Sure, fans will track it down wherever it is, but general audiences out for the night deciding what to see after they get to the theater aren't going to have it as an option and may not even know it exists.
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FLCLGainax





PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:42 pm Reply with quote
I'm curious to see how the turnout is at my theater.

Even if no sequels are made, it's satisfying that this movie got completed and released at all.
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7jaws7



Joined: 17 Aug 2013
Posts: 704
Location: New York State
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:43 pm Reply with quote
Don’t worry, the Chinese will bail us out financially like they always do.
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Furuzaki



Joined: 11 Jan 2016
Posts: 105
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:51 pm Reply with quote
Shay Guy wrote:
Okay, I'll bite. I'm totally clueless about how box office tracking works, but... how did they have an estimate two weeks before the movie opens?
US release dates is not the universal date, it's already screening in some countries, plus the early screenings for review purposes.

But "clueless" is appropriate, since it's mostly speculation and guessing. A movie critic can hate a movie that commoners love.
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TexZero



Joined: 25 Oct 2017
Posts: 583
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:44 pm Reply with quote
EricJ2 wrote:
Agent355 wrote:
Cardcaptor Takato wrote:
Alita is probably only able to make even this much because it's been released in January. The film would be destroyed if it was released during the summer blockbuster season.

I don't think so. February is a Dump Month. People tend to save money in February in particular to pay off holiday debt. Movie studios know to release movies during the holiday season or summer break. They were anticipating that Alita wouldn't fare well, unfortunately.


February used to be a Dump Month, January still is.
Until they tried dumping the first Deadpool in February (and covered it with a "Valentine's" joke), and then the Fifty Shades movies used Valentine's to clean up with their demographics...
Now, studios with a questionable but possible genre sleeper, like Black Panther, consider February the "new March" especially since it coincides with school vacation week. A fact Disney used to exploit back in the early 00's, when they put their hit-and-run cable kiddy-matinee movies in for a quick week's money.

Also, Alita was supposed to be Fox's big stake in last Christmas's Aquaman/Mary Poppins/Spiderman/Bumblebee races (or its Christmas Day dump), but now they found a less crowded date just as dumpy.


Don't forget that it had an Initial US release window of Summer 2018. It's first published cinematic trailers had it being released in July. It was delayed not once, but twice by fox for various reasons.
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EricJ2



Joined: 01 Feb 2014
Posts: 4016
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:32 pm Reply with quote
Kicksville wrote:
I wasn't sure if I'd see this before, but given some of the talk recently it sounds like it's worth the time.

I wonder if it would've helped at all if Alita were a little more...relevant? The manga's been out there, but there's been no new anime, as I understand it possibly due to Cameron owning the rights. If there'd been a half decent one, maybe it would've helped.


He's had it about as long as Francis Coppola reportedly had "Mai the Psychic Girl" (which also hasn't had an anime in all those years, AFAIK)
Which, in both cases, suggests a pet project by directors who thought they were the first Americans ever to set foot on the new storytelling frontier of Japanese manga, which, back in the early-80's, they probably were.
And nothing destroys a director more surely than Stubbornness, as those waiting for Cameron's Avatar II will vouch. (I'm not, but I keep hearing about people out there who do.)

unready wrote:
If movie theaters aren't booking it, either fewer theaters or fewer showings, that means they think it won't do well. In the meantime, since movie theaters aren't booking it, it also means people are going to have a hard time finding someplace to see it.


Booking engagements used to be the practice back when theaters were still independently operated--
But after the chain cineplex took over theaters in the 90's, we're at the stage now where everything opens, and "booking" is only a question of whether it gets one screen or four. Like "The Kid Who Would be King", this would be one of your One-Screens, and watched carefully to see whether it even keeps that.
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Agent355



Joined: 12 Dec 2008
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Location: Crackberry in hand, thumbs at the ready...
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:40 pm Reply with quote
The real death knell was how many times its release was delayed. That's always a bad sign, even if it did get a better release period than February.

That said, Christmas is in no way a "dump" period. Even people who are too religious or family oriented to go on Christmas itself might go while they are off from school/work in that spending spree vacation period between Christmas and New Year's. Aquaman, somehow, made tons of money, and the latest Star Wars movies were Christmastime releases.
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unready



Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 399
Location: Illinois, USA
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:58 pm Reply with quote
Agent355 wrote:
The real death knell was how many times its release was delayed. That's always a bad sign, even if it did get a better release period than February.


The real death knell would have been if the distributor didn't screen it for critics before the wide release. The delays were only about Cameron procrastinating until the rights to make a movie had almost lapsed. Since he's also the screenwriter, it would make me worry about the quality of the screenplay. Most of the negative critical reviews are about the story itself, though, which is supposedly fairly faithful to the original source material.

We'll see in a month how it performed the first few weeks. Maybe it'll be the biggest budget sleeper hit of the decade.
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Dracospirit121



Joined: 15 May 2016
Posts: 95
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:23 pm Reply with quote
Lemonchest wrote:
Trailer I saw was crap, so had no interest until reading ANN's review. Still prob won't see it at the cinema, though. I'm guessing they're predicting a flop in part because Valerian bombed in the US.


Trailer uses the heart scene, easy the weakest scene in the movie tbh. I rather enjoyed the movie in general, the cyborgs were well done and the fight scenes were very alive.
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Cardcaptor Takato



Joined: 27 Jan 2018
Posts: 4821
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:55 pm Reply with quote
7jaws7 wrote:
Don’t worry, the Chinese will bail us out financially like they always do.
Has there ever been an instant where an American made movie that bombed in the US was saved by international sales? People say this all the time and it never seems to happen.
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samuelp
Industry Insider


Joined: 25 Nov 2007
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Location: San Antonio, USA
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:03 pm Reply with quote
Cardcaptor Takato wrote:
7jaws7 wrote:
Don’t worry, the Chinese will bail us out financially like they always do.
Has there ever been an instant where an American made movie that bombed in the US was saved by international sales? People say this all the time and it never seems to happen.

Pacific Rim is pretty clear cut, and I think a good argument could be made for the last few transformer's movies even.
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unready



Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 399
Location: Illinois, USA
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:28 am Reply with quote
Cardcaptor Takato wrote:
7jaws7 wrote:
Don’t worry, the Chinese will bail us out financially like they always do.
Has there ever been an instant where an American made movie that bombed in the US was saved by international sales? People say this all the time and it never seems to happen.

Google is your friend. This is not a definitive list, of course.

Baywatch (2017)
Production budget: $69 million
U.S. Box Office: $58 million
International Box Office: $119.8 million

Blade Runner 2049 (2017)
Production budget: $150 million
U.S. Box Office: $91.8 million
International Box Office: $167.2 million

Geostorm (2017)
Production budget: $120 million
U.S. Box Office: $33.7 million
International Box Office: $179.2million

The Mummy (2017)
Production budget: $125 million
U.S. Box Office: $80.2 million
International Box Office: $329 million

Smurfs: The Lost Village (2017)
Production budget: $60 million
U.S. Box Office: $45 million
International Box Office: $152.2 million

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (2017)
Production budget: $177.2 million
U.S. Box Office: $41.2 million
International Box Office: $184.7 million

xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (2017)
Production budget: $85 million
U.S. Box Office: $44.9 million
International Box Office: $301.2 million

The Great Wall (2016)
Production budget: $150 million
U.S. Box Office: $45.5 million
International Box Office: $289.4 million

Noah (2014)
Production budget: $125 million
U.S. Box Office: $101.2 million
International Box Office: $261.4 million

After Earth (2013)
Production budget: $130 million
U.S. Box Office: $60.5 million
International Box Office: $183.3 million

A Good Day to Die Hard (2013)
Production budget: $92 million
U.S. Box Office: $67.3 million
International Box Office: $237.3 million

Pacific Rim (2013)
Production budget: $190 million
U.S. Box Office: $101.8 million
International Box Office: $309.2 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
Production budget: $250 million
U.S. Box Office: $241.1 million
International Box Office: $804.6 million

Jumper (2008)
Production budget: $85 million
U.S. Box Office: $80.2 million
International Box Office: $142.1 million

The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (2008)
Production budget: $145 million
U.S. Box Office: $102.5 million
International Box Office: $298.6 million

The Foreigner (2007)
Production budget: $35 million
U.S. Box Office: $34.4 million
International Box Office: $107.5 million

The Golden Compass (2007)
Production budget: $180 million
U.S. Box Office: $70.1 million
International Box Office: $302.1 million

Troy (2004)
Production budget: $175 million
U.S. Box Office: $133.4 million
International Box Office: $364 million
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Agent355



Joined: 12 Dec 2008
Posts: 5113
Location: Crackberry in hand, thumbs at the ready...
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:26 am Reply with quote
unready wrote:
Agent355 wrote:
The real death knell was how many times its release was delayed. That's always a bad sign, even if it did get a better release period than February.


The real death knell would have been if the distributor didn't screen it for critics before the wide release. The delays were only about Cameron procrastinating until the rights to make a movie had almost lapsed.

I'm talking about how the release date was pushed off twice after the movie was completed, which is usually a sign that the production company doesn't have faith in the film. You're right that not screening it for critics would be an even worse indication that they thought the movie sucked.
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Cardcaptor Takato



Joined: 27 Jan 2018
Posts: 4821
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:01 am Reply with quote
unready wrote:

Google is your friend. This is not a definitive list, of course.
So two of those got a sequel and one a reboot but it's still not a great sign if you're relying solely on China to save your film and it seems highly unlikely to me for China to save Alita when they weren't enough to save GITS.
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EricJ2



Joined: 01 Feb 2014
Posts: 4016
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:42 am Reply with quote
Agent355 wrote:
That said, Christmas is in no way a "dump" period. Even people who are too religious or family oriented to go on Christmas itself might go while they are off from school/work in that spending spree vacation period between Christmas and New Year's. Aquaman, somehow, made tons of money, and the latest Star Wars movies were Christmastime releases.


Back before 2002--when studios just found out that more parents go to the movies during Christmas->New Year's week when the kids are out of school--opening a movie on Christmas Day had only ONE purpose:
To open "Invisibly" under the radar, during the week the press critics were on vacation, and sneak in a quick week of business before word of mouth got out.
Last year, it was "Downsizing", this year...."Holmes & Watson". 'Nuff said. Shocked

It was sort of confusing this year, since usually the second week of December is the "Weekend of Death", now recognized as one of the lowest-grossing weekends of the year (that's what happens when you put theaters in shopping malls that no one wants to go near during shopping season), but "Into the Spiderverse" turned out to get a bit of a fan-rally audience instead...Shame about "Mortal Engines", though.
Usually the third week in December is "Avatar Week", one of the most sought-after weekends for big blockbusters--And that's when we usually get Star Wars, or The Hobbit Trilogy, or other movies that appeal to teens with their own cars and money, who don't have to worry about whether Mom wants to drive to the mall.
This year, Christmas was on a Tuesday, so Avatar Week and Christmas-Day Dump had to do double-duty on the same weekend, and it was hard telling which one Aquaman and Bumblebee were intended for. I think we know which one Fox intended Alita for.
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