Forum - View topicNEWS: Japan Decides on Thursday on Whether to Partly Lift State of Emergency
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Kougeru
Posts: 5521 |
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their "curve" has not only flattened, but sunk. They're definitely on a good course but will need to still have heavy restrictions. I don't think things like concerts and sports at least should exist this year
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bluesheep02
Posts: 78 Location: Tokyo, Japan |
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Our curve sunk because of a continued lack of testing, hospitals being closed over golden week, and hospitals refusing to take suspected covid patients to from ambulances. The numbers are so skewed... |
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omiya
Posts: 1823 Location: Adelaide, South Australia |
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This article covers some details about the lack of testing in Japan:
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200511/p2a/00m/0na/007000c |
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Kaylee Smerbeck
Posts: 144 |
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If the lockdown is working keep it up it only takes 1 bad day to fudge it up
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Beatdigga
Posts: 4352 Location: New York |
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All the more reason to leave it in place. Until you’re sure, you need to stop. |
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Tempest
I Run this place.
ANN Publisher Posts: 10419 Location: Do not message me for support. |
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The number of infections is really, really dependant on local testing procedures. It can be really, really important to local policy making because the local epidemialogists understand the local testing standards (and hopefully politicians are listening to them). In countries without wide-spread testing, the reported infections stat is really, really useless to anyone but an expert. If & when Japan adopts wide-spread testing, their reported infections statistic will sky-rocket suddenly. Fatality per capita isn't quite perfect, as some people die at home without ever beiong tested. For those dying without ever being tested, most countries are not counting them as "Covid-19 deaths." But in first world countries, most people who develop serious conditions do end up getting tested, the fatality rate is more accurate than the infections rate. Of course, the fatality rate per infection does vary per country. But ultimately, deaths are what we are trying to avoid, so a country with lots of infections, but very few deaths is a success story. My preferred number to look at to see how a country is doing is deaths per capita / 7-day rolling average. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?yScale=log&country=ESP+USA+GBR+KOR+CAN+JPN+SGP+TWN The big problem with this statistic is that countries (even Japan), are big places. So national averages don't tell the whole story. In Canada, the whole country looks flatish... but actually most of the country is doing well, and one city (mine ) is doing poorly. Meanwhile the US graph looks good, but most of the country is actually getting worse, and one city (NYC), is getting better. Nippon.com has statistics for Japan broken down by prefecture, sadly they don't have daily / rolling averages for fatalities. https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00657/coronavirus-cases-in-japan-by-prefecture.html - I'm sure someone in Japan has tabulated this data, but I haven't seen it yet. -t |
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xxmsxx
Posts: 556 |
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Fellow Canadian here. Thanks for the explanation. It appears that testing has been a major problem in Japan from the start. Not that other countries didn't experience this, but usually testing capacity turn around in about three to six weeks. This does not appear to have happened in Japan |
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Kaylee Smerbeck
Posts: 144 |
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Yeah the US got hit hard by testing or lack there of no reason Japan wouldn't be in the same boat. Also is it swab tests they're short on antibody or both |
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Tempest
I Run this place.
ANN Publisher Posts: 10419 Location: Do not message me for support. |
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The issue isn't a shortage of test kits. The problem is that their action plan doesn't call for widespread testing. Details available in the article Omiya linked to: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200511/p2a/00m/0na/007000c |
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