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Shelf Life - Psychic Reading


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Keichitsu0305





PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:54 am Reply with quote
RyanSaotome wrote:

Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.


I wonder why though? Confused
Could it be because both shows are aimed at women/older viewers? That the protagonists are adults (over the age 19) and not adorable teens? That the writing is 'fairly' more realistic than idolized or more down-to-earth than living out wild fantasy?
In that case, is it even possible for both types to sell well?
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RyanSaotome



Joined: 29 Mar 2011
Posts: 4210
Location: Towson, Maryland
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:56 am Reply with quote
mad mac wrote:

I don't tracks sales all that closely, though. How has the Noitama block been doing overall over the last year or so?


The best selling Noitamina shows since the beginning of 2011 are...

(by 1st week sales)

1. Ano Hana - 46,474
2. Guilty Crown - 12,137
3. NO. 6 - 5,468
4. Tsuritama - 4,494
5. Usagi Drop - 4,189
6. Black Rock Shooter - 4,041

Source: http://dvdbd.wiki.fc2.com/?sid=64d778040154cd6fa2199ad3ebb32191

I don't believe anything else sold over 4k. As you can see, its really been all about Ano Hana, which was one of the top selling shows of 2011. Guilty Crown did well too... but both of those aren't really your typical Noitamina shows.

Keichitsu0305 wrote:
RyanSaotome wrote:

Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.


I wonder why though? Confused
Could it be because both shows are aimed at women/older viewers? That the protagonists are adults (over the age 19) and not adorable teens? That the writing is 'fairly' more realistic than idolized or more down-to-earth than living out wild fantasy?
In that case, is it even possible for both types to sell well?


Well unless older women start to buy anime series for 400 bucks each in large numbers, I wouldn't expect it to change. Anime is aimed at the hardcore fanbase who is willing to spend a lot of money supporting it, and most people who like these type of anime don't fall under that kind of demographic.

Add hot bishounens and it would sell though. The female otaku have some serious spending power, as seen by stuff like Kuruko Basketball which sold over 20k last season.
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tuxedocat



Joined: 14 Dec 2009
Posts: 2183
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:17 pm Reply with quote
Keichitsu0305 wrote:
RyanSaotome wrote:

Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.


I wonder why though? Confused
Could it be because both shows are aimed at women/older viewers? That the protagonists are adults (over the age 19) and not adorable teens? That the writing is 'fairly' more realistic than idolized or more down-to-earth than living out wild fantasy?
In that case, is it even possible for both types to sell well?


I think it is probably because anime has been pandering to the manabi line otaku for so long now, most people have stopped paying any attention to it. So much of it caters only to a continually contracting audience, with the rest of the potential audience increasingly dismissive.
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Hypeathon



Joined: 12 Aug 2010
Posts: 1176
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:56 pm Reply with quote
@ tuxedocat & Keichitsu0305:

Escapism. Escapism and probably even wish fulfillment regarding the opposite sex are the key clues to your speculation.
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tuxedocat



Joined: 14 Dec 2009
Posts: 2183
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:13 pm Reply with quote
Hypeathon wrote:
@ tuxedocat & Keichitsu0305:

Escapism. Escapism and probably even wish fulfillment regarding the opposite sex are the key clues to your speculation.


Escapism from the opposite sex, maybe? Laughing

In any case, it is not a robust business model, since the market is so narrowly targeted, and that market just gets narrower. The cost of entry goes higher as the market narrows. Over time, I can't see this as sustainable in any way. What makes it worse, is that they keep applying the same "manabi line" business model to stuff that may appeal to a more mainstream audience. It is no wonder there are so many failures.

I sometimes wonder whether the industry would benefit from taking a break. --Just long enough (year or so) for the bulk of the audience to notice the vacuum, then reboot itself with an altered business model.
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RyanSaotome



Joined: 29 Mar 2011
Posts: 4210
Location: Towson, Maryland
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:19 pm Reply with quote
tuxedocat wrote:
Hypeathon wrote:
@ tuxedocat & Keichitsu0305:

Escapism. Escapism and probably even wish fulfillment regarding the opposite sex are the key clues to your speculation.


Escapism from the opposite sex, maybe? Laughing

In any case, it is not a robust business model, since the market is so narrowly targeted, and that market just gets narrower. The cost of entry goes higher as the market narrows. Over time, I can't see this as sustainable in any way. What makes it worse, is that they keep applying the same "manabi line" business model to stuff that may appeal to a more mainstream audience. It is no wonder there are so many failures.

I sometimes wonder whether the industry would benefit from taking a break. --Just long enough (year or so) for the bulk of the audience to notice the vacuum, then reboot itself with an altered business model.


That makes no sense, since the anime industry is doing better than ever in recent years.

(copy and paste from another forum I posted this about recently)

3 of the best selling anime in the DVD era were just in the last 2 years. (Nise, Madoka and Fate/Zero). Overall sales are up, and significantly more than the early 2000s.

http://www.mania.com/aodvb/showthread.php?p=1972211#post1972211

Here are the best selling anime from 2000 or later. As you can see, it really skews towards 2007 and later, with especially a lot from 2010 and later. 8 of the top 20 selling anime since 2000 are from after 2010 or later.

And heres a breakdown of 10k+ sellers by year:

Breakdown by year:
2000 - 2
2001 - 2
2002 - 7
2003 - 4
2004 - 4
2005 - 9
2006 - 6
2007 - 9
2008 - 13
2009 - 11
2010 - 11
2011 - 15
2012 - 3

2012 will get up to 7 once Fate/Zero and Summer anime go on sale (Sword Art Online, Horizon 2 and Tari Tari will all sell 10k+), and then there are at least 3 or 4 anime this Fall that should sell 10k, so it should get up to double digits like the last 4 years as well.

-end copy and paste-

Basically, the anime industry is doing better while catering to their specific fanbases. Appealing to casuals, who aren't sustainable in anyway, would be more detrimental in the long run. Look at the Wii... Nintendo appealed to casuals, which benefited them for the short term. But the casuals aren't as into it so they've abandoned Nintendo. But the hardcore fans hardly ever will abandon you.
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Keichitsu0305





PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:24 pm Reply with quote
1st: Thanks RyanSaotome, tuxedocat, andHypeathon for answering my (somewhat) vague question.

2nd: Makes sense that shows (of any media)that were meant to serve as escapism will provide more sales that others. I'm looking at manga sellson Oricon and, lo & behold, one escapist manga reigns supreme.

But that's fine. I'll still buy/rent the anime/manga I like even if it won't make the Top 100 in sales.
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tuxedocat



Joined: 14 Dec 2009
Posts: 2183
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:37 pm Reply with quote
RyanSaotome wrote:
tuxedocat wrote:
Hypeathon wrote:
@ tuxedocat & Keichitsu0305:

Escapism. Escapism and probably even wish fulfillment regarding the opposite sex are the key clues to your speculation.


Escapism from the opposite sex, maybe? Laughing

In any case, it is not a robust business model, since the market is so narrowly targeted, and that market just gets narrower. The cost of entry goes higher as the market narrows. Over time, I can't see this as sustainable in any way. What makes it worse, is that they keep applying the same "manabi line" business model to stuff that may appeal to a more mainstream audience. It is no wonder there are so many failures.

I sometimes wonder whether the industry would benefit from taking a break. --Just long enough (year or so) for the bulk of the audience to notice the vacuum, then reboot itself with an altered business model.


That makes no sense, since the anime industry is doing better than ever in recent years.

(copy and paste from another forum I posted this about recently)

3 of the best selling anime in the DVD era were just in the last 2 years. (Nise, Madoka and Fate/Zero). Overall sales are up, and significantly more than the early 2000s.

http://www.mania.com/aodvb/showthread.php?p=1972211#post1972211

Here are the best selling anime from 2000 or later. As you can see, it really skews towards 2007 and later, with especially a lot from 2010 and later. 8 of the top 20 selling anime since 2000 are from after 2010 or later.

And heres a breakdown of 10k+ sellers by year:

Breakdown by year:
2000 - 2
2001 - 2
2002 - 7
2003 - 4
2004 - 4
2005 - 9
2006 - 6
2007 - 9
2008 - 13
2009 - 11
2010 - 11
2011 - 15
2012 - 3

2012 will get up to 7 once Fate/Zero and Summer anime go on sale (Sword Art Online, Horizon 2 and Tari Tari will all sell 10k+), and then there are at least 3 or 4 anime this Fall that should sell 10k, so it should get up to double digits like the last 4 years as well.

-end copy and paste-

Basically, the anime industry is doing better while catering to their specific fanbases. Appealing to casuals, who aren't sustainable in anyway, would be more detrimental in the long run. Look at the Wii... Nintendo appealed to casuals, which benefited them for the short term. But the casuals aren't as into it so they've abandoned Nintendo. But the hardcore fans hardly ever will abandon you.


Even so, these numbers you post neglect the overall number of shows produced in a year. There are a lot of shows that fail. I have to wonder how it all evens out after counting the losses from the failed properties. One or two successes yearly probably manage to keep these studios solvent from year to year, but not what I would consider robust and expanding.

My business sometimes advises venture capitalists. As much as I love anime, I couldn't in good faith advise someone to invest in it.
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enurtsol



Joined: 01 May 2007
Posts: 14795
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:21 pm Reply with quote
tuxedocat wrote:
Keichitsu0305 wrote:
RyanSaotome wrote:

Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.


I wonder why though? Confused
Could it be because both shows are aimed at women/older viewers? That the protagonists are adults (over the age 19) and not adorable teens? That the writing is 'fairly' more realistic than idolized or more down-to-earth than living out wild fantasy?
In that case, is it even possible for both types to sell well?


I think it is probably because anime has been pandering to the manabi line otaku for so long now, most people have stopped paying any attention to it. So much of it caters only to a continually contracting audience, with the rest of the potential audience increasingly dismissive.


Reminds us of the U.S. comics situation. Laughing
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Vata Raven



Joined: 21 May 2007
Posts: 710
Location: TN
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:32 pm Reply with quote
Keichitsu0305 wrote:
Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.

Wait, is that sales in Japan or US sales? Because if a non-fan service did that poorly over in the US...I'll be mad.
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RyanSaotome



Joined: 29 Mar 2011
Posts: 4210
Location: Towson, Maryland
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:48 pm Reply with quote
Vata Raven wrote:
Keichitsu0305 wrote:
Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.

Wait, is that sales in Japan or US sales? Because if a non-fan service did that poorly over in the US...I'll be mad.


Jellyfish sales are for Japan. It probably did better over here.
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Maidenoftheredhand



Joined: 21 Jun 2007
Posts: 2633
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:54 pm Reply with quote
The thing is they know when they make Josei they aren’t going to be big sellers in DVD/BR. Those shows are more concerned with ratings and increasing manga sales.

Of course the anime industry does a disservice to Josei by only putting it on late at night when it has a limited potential audience anyways.

Although there have been Josei like Honey & Clover and Nodame Cantabile that did not do poorly.

Chihayayfuru’s ratings weren’t that great but I believe it’s manga sales went up. It is getting that 2nd season after all.
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TokyoOctopus



Joined: 07 Aug 2012
Posts: 5
Location: Alexandria VA
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:25 pm Reply with quote
Nice collection... I love that you have some older stuff... Sometimes I feel like the only person on the planet that watches a show that is more than 10 years old and on a DVD!... Would it be wrong to admit that some of the time I only read shelf life so that I can see awesome collections of anime goodness?
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LaFreccia



Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 324
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:55 pm Reply with quote
I really like the art style of Uta Koi, and it is great to see some adult relationships in anime (both Uta Koi and Natsuyuki Rendezvous).
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erinfinnegan
ANN Columnist


Joined: 31 Jan 2005
Posts: 598
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:31 am Reply with quote
mad mac wrote:
Quote:
Natsuyuki is projected as the worst selling show of the Summer season (about 500 copies sold), so I wouldn't call it a victory yet. Jellyfish also sold about 700 copies. If anything, it just shows that the anime fanbase doesn't want these kinds of shows made.

Well, they're shows aimed at a difference audience. It might be more accurate to say that josei fans apparently don't buy (Or watch?) a lot of anime.

I hate to equate a show's artistic merit to how many DVDs it sold in Japan. I mean, as viewers outside of Japan, how much should we consider Japanese DVD sales as a predictor of what we might like to watch or purchase? A certain amount of market vigilance is perfectly fine for curiosity's sake, but certainly I greatly enjoy titles that were commercial flops both inside and outside of Japan.
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