Forum - View topicNEWS: Attack on Titan 13 Is 1st in Series to Sell 1 Million in 1 Week
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sim0n2170
Posts: 153 |
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Attack on Titan going strong still
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P(mv)rick
Posts: 9 |
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My God, no need for One Piece fanboys to get butthurt over AoT challenging its reign. Obviously, after running for more than a decade now, there's absolutely nothing that can top One Piece anytime soon with the feats that it has reached. It's more about AoT fans being surprised that it can give One Piece a run for its money, not because they think it'll topple One Piece at all. There's no point getting defensive like little pussies when you're on the champion's side.
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pykrete
Posts: 145 |
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First, let me clear some things up. I'm talking about Oricon-tracked sales, not circulation numbers. Oricon numbers will always be lower than circulation numbers. With manga, probably at least 20% lower than actual sales numbers, if there's no stock shortage. So as much as possible, please don't mix up the two kinds of numbers. As for why, despite high circulation numbers, I think One Piece sold similarly to Naruto before 2009, aside from:
- Google Trends also says that One Piece only became super-popular in 2009. 
Image Source: Google Trends For now, I think One Piece 2009 to 2013 Oricon numbers are short by at least 20%, probably more. That Oricon doesn't count a significant chunk of sales is, in my opinion, more likely than One Piece selling over 10 million pre-2008 and then dropping by 40% in 2008. |
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Niello
Posts: 302 |
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Uhh, I think people who are comparing Attack on Titan and One Piece forget something important. That is, One Piece didn't have the internet to support it in its early years. Less people were using the internet and there weren't sites like Youtube around, for example.
That being said, AoT numbers really are impressive. I'm glad it's doing well both in Japan and oversea. Personally, the newer chapters failed to keep me engaged but I will probably check it out again when it's finished or at least after a few years elapsed. |
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bigivel
 Posts: 536 |
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It doesn't matter if the Oricon numbers are not the same as in reality nor if 2009 started the peak of popularity of One Piece. Are you saying that Oricon missed 73 Million copies during a period of 5 years? And that during those 5 years One Piece sold more than 2/3 of his 17 years sales? And that all those years before 2009 it maximized in sales(It had the best possible sales without going over 10M)? With your 20% error margin, One Piece before 2009 would have to sell an average of 13,5M per year and the oricon of that time, if it would exist, would give an average of 10.8M(less 20%) per year. We have the first 2 years of One Piece(before the anime) where it certainly sold a lot less than 10M. Vol. 11 had a printing of 1.35M, let's say that every volume previous to that was selling that, to not make the situation more dire. 1st year and 2nd year each sold 6.75M(5 * 1.35M). That makes 13.4 Millions that the other 9 years would have to compensate, in other words, an average of 1.5M to compensate every year. Turning the 13.5 M into 15M and the Oricon would give 12M. Note: Every year below 13,5M would need to be compensated by the following years. Kutsu said that before 2009 each volume of One Piece was selling between 1.7M and 2M. 5 volumes per Year gives 8.5-10M, an that only in the current year volumes and not counting the backlog sales. By this article http://comipress.com/article/2007/05/06/1923, in 2006 One Piece was like this: Title (Volumes) Circulation Latest 1st Edition vol. Sales One Piece (1-45) 130,000,000 vol. 45 - 2,250,000 That makes an average of 13M per year before that time and in Oricon 10.8M per year. There is no way that One Piece wouldn't get, more than one time, over 10 Millions, before 2009. Certainly One Piece had a boost in selling in the beginning of the anime, in the Alabasta kingdom and in Water 7. |
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pykrete
Posts: 145 |
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^ It's very telling that you disregard the Google Trends chart.
How about this instead? Link me a reputable source stating that One Piece sold over 10 million when it just had 11 volumes or when first season of its anime aired. Also, One Piece 45 ongoing 130,000,000 - this is circulation numbers, not sales. |
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yukimasuka
Posts: 44 |
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I guess you miss the point that internet was not that big in the early 2000s. If there were less japanese using the internet, the google trend would not be an accurate depiction of one piece popularity. Listen to the one piece podcast, one of the host who lives in japan states that one piece was very popular during the alabasta arc. The poparity went down during the skypeia arc. Let just say that one piece SOLD around 100mil copies (30mil less than the circulation) in 9 years. It is a certain that it sold at least 10mil copies per year. You can at least do the math. there is no reputable source and you know it. You're asking for it because your math/scenario does not match up with what we know about its circulation during that time. Thats like asking you for a reputable source that prove that once sold less than 10mil copies per year Before 2008. In statistics/math/science, if you cant disprove (not prove) the hypothesis then the hypothesis is not wrong. Lets see if you can find a source to disprove the hypothesis that one piece sold more than 10mil copies per year before 2008. On the one piece podcast, the chief editor of weekly shonen jump said that one piece was popular since the very beginning. Congrats to AoT, lets see if you can reach 2mil in the first week. I would be surprise since no other manga besides one piece can. Well, there is a possibility that AoT is #1 during the 1st half of 2014 since one piece has release only 1 vol so far this year. |
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pykrete
Posts: 145 |
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Guess why I decided to add Gundam to the Google Trends Chart.
Also, please try to explain the 2008 Oricon Report. I also checked how much One Piece Circulation Numbers increased from 2007 to 2008.
If a manga's circulation numbers increase by 10 million in 2007, it's pretty unlikely it sold more than 10 million in 2007. So, that's 2 years pre-2009 wherein data suggests One Piece didn't sell over 10 million. |
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SteveBomb
Posts: 1 |
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@bigivel
@yukimasuka There's really no need to apply mathematics and bring in articles where it's not even relevant. You have to keep in mind popularity is not linear and it's not as simple as using basic math to account for the missing sales prior to 2008. Even if you disregard pykrete's Google Trends chart, the following article from ANN already paints the picture very clearly, animenewsnetwork.com/news/2011-11-30/one-piece-sells-record-38-million-manga-volumes-in-2011 2008 sales: 5,956,540 (start of Oricon's tracking) 2009 sales: 14,721,241 (247% increase from 2008) 2010 sales: 32,343,809 (220% increase from 2009, 543% increase from 2008) 2011 sales: 37,996,373 (finally plateaued) Within two years One Piece outsold One Piece by 543%. It doesn't take a mathematics professor to figure out the chances of OP selling 10m+ copies prior to 2008. spoiler[ It's close to 0 BTW for the people that can't tell.] |
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pykrete
Posts: 145 |
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That 10 million a year milestone is just so big that if One Piece already broke it prior to 2008, I think there would have been news articles about it.
Also, according to Oricon, One Piece "sold" 132,634,428 from 2008 to 2013. And according to: http://www.geocities.jp/wj_log/rank/ - One Piece only printed out 150 million copies.
What does this mean? It means that One Piece sold 88.42% of the copies printed out from 2008 to 2013. 11.58% allowance is too little, so a significant chunk of copies printed before 2008 has to have been sold during 2008 to 2013. |
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bigivel
Posts: 536 |
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What is not linear? The sales? They are totally linear. You're using increase/decrease over years. And that just makes what I'm saying more certain and not the other way around. If the increase/decrease over years isn't linear, than obviously more than one year before 2009 would need to have sold more than 10 Millions. Why, because if you have an average of 10M, but sometimes the value is below(and has Pykerete believes is way below) than other years it would need to be way way above 10M as well. With all the huge sales that one piece had from 2008 to 2014. It sold only around 155M copies by Oricon. Around half of the total of One Piece print right now, and by 2006 One Piece already had a printing of 130M. How do you think that in 8 years One Piece achieved a printing of 130M without ever selling in one year more than 10M? And accounting with the not linear increase/decrease over years? Note that if One Piece had sold 10 M every year since 1998, than in 2006 would have sold 80 M copies. This is the most exaggerate case where One Piece over those years didn't surpassed the 10 M copies mark. But even in that case it would have sold 50 M copies less than the printing. That is a divergence between copies sold and copies in print of 38.5%. Why would Jump Comics print 38.5%-50M more copies than what it sold? But even if we assume they did that, with the not linear increase/decrease of selling by year and knowing that the two first years are certainly low compared with the rest, than is obvious that it certainly got more than 10M during that time. |
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bigivel
Posts: 536 |
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Give me a hypothetical example of a believable case where a manga never sold more than 10M in one year but got 130M copies in print after 8 years. I don't see how you believe that is true, but OK. And you take the numbers of popularity of Google Trend, and only one year of sales, by Oricon, that were nothing more than their first year doing it. Do you really believe those values say anything about sales of previous years? -Google Trend: I will only tell, does Gundam sell a lot of manga? NO! Compared with One Piece it always sold a lot less, in that Google Trend he is always above One Piece until 2010. -Oricon 2008: Not only was the first year of Oricon, One Piece had already been running for 10 years so it probably was in a not "hyped up" time, One Piece was in Thriller Bark that I believe have a similar effect has Skypiea. Comparing a series that been running for 9 years with a single year, the lowest we have information nonetheless, is a faulty thought process. |
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pykrete
Posts: 145 |
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^ Have a look at this chart instead.
Look at the spikes for Kuroko and Magi. And I only include Gundam because someone said that the internet wasn't popular at that time.
You just can't seem to understand that I'm was only talking about Oricon-tracked sales when I made the over 10 million sold in a year statement. As for copies in print, Shueisha is infamous for overhyping series it wants to push. Like Toriko, for example. Unless we have Oricon or another reputable company stating that it registered XXX amount of sales, it's more likely for a company to overprint copies than run out of copies. |
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bigivel
Posts: 536 |
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But you don't have Oricon-tracked sales before 2008 so you can't say that One Piece only did it in 2009. Just like I don't have those values, neither do you. So you can't talk about those, when you say that "only did it in 2009" you're talking since the beginning too. And Is pretty obvious that One Piece did it before, I don't see why the resistance at all. You talk about Oricon tracked sales and you say that Oricon has a margin of error of around 20%. And in fact that can be seen. Shonen Jump said that One Piece from 2011 January to 2012 February it sold(Not print, but sold!) 45,800,000 copies(here the link ->animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-10-23/top-10-shonen-jump-manga-by-all-time-volume-sales ), while Oricon said that from December 2010 to November 2011 One Piece sold 37,996,373 copies. That is an error margin of 17.04%. The thing is that I showed you that even with an error margin of 20% One Piece certainly had an average of 10.8M per year in those 11 years(1998-2008). While the sales are not the same every year, they have ups and downs, in the years downs they could have been less than 10M but in the ups certainly it was more than 10M. Proving that in fact One Piece sold over 10M before 2009. |
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pykrete
Posts: 145 |
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^ 20% underestimation is only for Naruto-level series.
The underestimation increases the more popular a series is. When One Piece was selling over 30 million a year, I doubt that the underestimation was only 20 percent. Btw, since you can't prove my "over 10 million sold" statement is incorrect with "facts", how about we just end the discussion? Cause you know, I really don't care if you think One Piece sold 10 million pre-2008. I'm just replying because you seem so insistent on that I must be wrong. |
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