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bigivel
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 536
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 Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 2:48 pm
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| pykrete wrote: | | ^ 20% underestimation is only for Naruto-level series.
The underestimation increases the more popular a series is. When One Piece was selling over 30 million a year, I doubt that the underestimation was only 20 percent.
Btw, since you can't prove my "over 10 million sold" statement is incorrect with "facts", how about we just end the discussion?
Cause you know, I really don't care if you think One Piece sold 10 million pre-2008. I'm just replying because you seem so insistent on that I must be wrong. |
Yep, is better to end right here. I just proved to you with facts that Oricon underestimated One Piece in 17.04%(that is less than 20%) during 2011 the time One Piece sold 38 Millions, but you seem not even take that, and start talking about 20% being the deviation of Naruto level series, something that is totally irrelevant here, so is obviously you will not take the rest, that is simple math and so factual as well.
Last thing: I just prove to you over and over again, with facts, that your 10M pre-2008 is wrong.
A good think about math is that you can get information in an indirect manner. I don't need the numbers from all those years to know that at least in one of those years it sold more than 10M, because I have the numbers since 2008 and the current Total numbers. So I know the Total of that time, and so I know the average of that time.
One of the math axioms says that if you have a continuous function(linear function of sales per year) and in one point there is a value lower or equal than the average, than it has to exist another value higher or equal than that average.
Given that certainly One Piece sold at least once less or equal to his average, than is proved that some years it sold the same or higher than the average. Now, the average is more than 10M. So Certainly One Piece sold at least once, more than 10M pre-2008. That is a fact! (In reality given that the average is more than 10M, shows that it surpassed that value a lot of times, or that the little times it surpassed it, surpassed by a really HUGE margin).
Do you know why Mathematics is called an exact science because the results you achieve by using the right calculation are exacts, facts! If you want to disagree with the results than you must disagree with one of my calculations and not bring "You don't have the specifics results of those years", because in the end they aren't needed.
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kumei
Joined: 16 Apr 2014
Posts: 3
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:34 pm
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| pykrete wrote: | | ^ 20% underestimation is only for Naruto-level series.
The underestimation increases the more popular a series is. When One Piece was selling over 30 million a year, I doubt that the underestimation was only 20 percent.
Btw, since you can't prove my "over 10 million sold" statement is incorrect with "facts", how about we just end the discussion?
Cause you know, I really don't care if you think One Piece sold 10 million pre-2008. I'm just replying because you seem so insistent on that I must be wrong. |
1)
- According to shueisha One Piece sold 273,430,000 copies as of
February 2012 animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-10-23/top-10-shonen-jump-manga-by-all-time-volume-sales
let's say this is exaggeration and assume it sold only 200m copies.
- From 2008 to november 2011, based on Oricon numbers, OP sold
91,017,963 copies and (let's assume again that 9m copies were sold
from November 2011 to February 2012) that means OP sold 100m
from 2008 to February 2012.
Then we have , from 1998 to 2007(10 years) :
(200m - 100m) / 10 = 10m per year. this is the AVERAGE, if in some years it sold less than the average, in others it would sell more than the average (10m).
2)
Shueisha also announced OP has 300m copies in print in Japan.
if in every year from 1998 to 2007 it sold 8 m copies per volume as an average (means it was selling between 7 and 9 m) that's 80m.
from 2008 to 2013, 132,634,428 copies were sold as reported by Oricon.
80m+ 132,634,428 = 212,634,428.
300m - 212,634,428 = 87,365,572 copies unsold !
I have to be as stupid as Shueisha,that printed that much of unsold copies , to think that OP never sold more than 10m before 2009.
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meeedoooz
Joined: 03 Aug 2013
Posts: 37
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:20 pm
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| Wojtini wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: | | you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
AoT is nothing comparing to OP. AoT had over 15mln in 2013 (OP selled over 18mln for reminding) because anime was aired then and a lot of people had gone to shops and bought all 10 volumes, so number of sells jump really high. In 2014 it normalized so it will be around 8mln max and OP will be over 25mln with this epic action what Oda is serving us nowadays.
AoT had its moment, HAD. Nothing can stop OP. |
really ? what if i told you OP volumes used to reach the 3 million mark while it's still on the charts but for the last couple of volumes doesn't seem able to ?
so saying it would sell in 2014 more than 2013 is strange , as for the backlog sales. who cares ?!!
what matters at the end is that AoT brought its publisher more money that OP did
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meeedoooz
Joined: 03 Aug 2013
Posts: 37
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:25 pm
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| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| Wojtini wrote: | | One Piece will be like "meh....not even close" |
you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
The revenue that you're talking is(in Yen):
01) 12 924 700 000 Shingeki no Kyojin
02) 11 061 300 000 One Piece
The thing is that those numbers only talk about Manga(original and spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound.
Only that! No Merchandise. No TV ratings. No Advertisement. No Events.
The thing is that by 2011 and 2012 counting everything we have:
005 One Piece-------4.23%-------64,888,200,000
Note: The value is an estimation(that should be almost right) given that the only information given was the value of the market as an all and the percentage each franchise had of the market.
Information found here:
animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-08-14/20-most-valuable-character-brands-in-japan-2011
http://archive.foolz.us/a/thread/94790089/
http://bbs.ngacn.cc/read.php?tid=6297211&rand=622 |
actually that's not right, even though i was talking about manga alone . counting the others factors like ( spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound. with sales world wide should be more than enough 
the thing is i don't know of anything that has accomplished what AoT did, even non anime fans in my country know it and love it !!
and that's saying a lot, so " one piece would be like, meh... not even close " is an annoying statement 
Last edited by meeedoooz on Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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bigivel
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 536
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:30 pm
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| meeedoooz wrote: |
| Wojtini wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: | | you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
AoT is nothing comparing to OP. AoT had over 15mln in 2013 (OP selled over 18mln for reminding) because anime was aired then and a lot of people had gone to shops and bought all 10 volumes, so number of sells jump really high. In 2014 it normalized so it will be around 8mln max and OP will be over 25mln with this epic action what Oda is serving us nowadays.
AoT had its moment, HAD. Nothing can stop OP. |
really ? what if i told you OP volumes used to reach the 3 million mark while it's still on the charts but for the last couple of volumes doesn't seem able to ?
so saying it would sell in 2014 more than 2013 is strange , as for the backlog sales. who cares ?!!
what matters at the end is that AoT brought its publisher more money that OP did |
The thing is that probably it didn't. The royalties of others things like, TV ratings, Commercials, Games, Merchandising Weren't accounted.
But yes, in terms of manga: original manga and spin offs, DVD/BD, Music CD's and Light Novels/Novels. Attack on Titan earned more than One Piece in 2013.
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bigivel
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 536
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:33 pm
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| meeedoooz wrote: |
| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| Wojtini wrote: | | One Piece will be like "meh....not even close" |
you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
The revenue that you're talking is(in Yen):
01) 12 924 700 000 Shingeki no Kyojin
02) 11 061 300 000 One Piece
The thing is that those numbers only talk about Manga(original and spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound.
Only that! No Merchandise. No TV ratings. No Advertisement. No Events.
The thing is that by 2011 and 2012 counting everything we have:
005 One Piece-------4.23%-------64,888,200,000
Note: The value is an estimation(that should be almost right) given that the only information given was the value of the market as an all and the percentage each franchise had of the market.
Information found here:
animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-08-14/20-most-valuable-character-brands-in-japan-2011
http://archive.foolz.us/a/thread/94790089/
http://bbs.ngacn.cc/read.php?tid=6297211&rand=622 |
actually that's not right, even though i was talking about manga alone . counting the others factors like ( spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound. with sales world wide should be more than enough |
No they aren't enough. Unless AOT is mainstream in other places of the world and not just a niche. It is certainly not enough to surpass One Piece overall. Note, that One Piece presence in other places of the world isn't null.
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meeedoooz
Joined: 03 Aug 2013
Posts: 37
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:36 pm
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| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| Wojtini wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: | | you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
AoT is nothing comparing to OP. AoT had over 15mln in 2013 (OP selled over 18mln for reminding) because anime was aired then and a lot of people had gone to shops and bought all 10 volumes, so number of sells jump really high. In 2014 it normalized so it will be around 8mln max and OP will be over 25mln with this epic action what Oda is serving us nowadays.
AoT had its moment, HAD. Nothing can stop OP. |
really ? what if i told you OP volumes used to reach the 3 million mark while it's still on the charts but for the last couple of volumes doesn't seem able to ?
so saying it would sell in 2014 more than 2013 is strange , as for the backlog sales. who cares ?!!
what matters at the end is that AoT brought its publisher more money that OP did |
The thing is that probably it didn't. The royalties of others things like, TV ratings, Commercials, Games, Merchandising Weren't accounted.
But yes, in terms of manga: original manga and spin offs, DVD/BD, Music CD's and Light Novels/Novels. Attack on Titan earned more than One Piece in 2013. |
maybe , i edited my previous post . the point is AoT didn't have a movie for an example sooo, comparing it with one piece in the fields where they both has stuff to offer is more fair
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meeedoooz
Joined: 03 Aug 2013
Posts: 37
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:40 pm
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| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| Wojtini wrote: | | One Piece will be like "meh....not even close" |
you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
The revenue that you're talking is(in Yen):
01) 12 924 700 000 Shingeki no Kyojin
02) 11 061 300 000 One Piece
The thing is that those numbers only talk about Manga(original and spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound.
Only that! No Merchandise. No TV ratings. No Advertisement. No Events.
The thing is that by 2011 and 2012 counting everything we have:
005 One Piece-------4.23%-------64,888,200,000
Note: The value is an estimation(that should be almost right) given that the only information given was the value of the market as an all and the percentage each franchise had of the market.
Information found here:
animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-08-14/20-most-valuable-character-brands-in-japan-2011
http://archive.foolz.us/a/thread/94790089/
http://bbs.ngacn.cc/read.php?tid=6297211&rand=622 |
actually that's not right, even though i was talking about manga alone . counting the others factors like ( spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound. with sales world wide should be more than enough |
No they aren't enough. Unless AOT is mainstream in other places of the world and not just a niche. It is certainly not enough to surpass One Piece overall. Note, that One Piece presence in other places of the world isn't null. |
maybe isn't null, but isn't enough to compare to AoT, Naruto, sailor moon and many others
AoT is a world wide anime phenomena i don't know if this is what you call " niche " or not but it doesn't matter.
for a manga to surpass one piece in revenue and be a world wide hit ( which one piece never accomplished ) i think it's a great goal
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bigivel
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 536
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:02 pm
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| meeedoooz wrote: |
| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| bigivel wrote: |
| meeedoooz wrote: |
| Wojtini wrote: | | One Piece will be like "meh....not even close" |
you do realize that in terms of revenue AoT gained more than OP in 2013 ?
and if this keeps up , with the sales of AoT world wide " it's a big hit every where as much as i know, unlike OP " it will be the most revenue generating manga in 2014 too ? |
The revenue that you're talking is(in Yen):
01) 12 924 700 000 Shingeki no Kyojin
02) 11 061 300 000 One Piece
The thing is that those numbers only talk about Manga(original and spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound.
Only that! No Merchandise. No TV ratings. No Advertisement. No Events.
The thing is that by 2011 and 2012 counting everything we have:
005 One Piece-------4.23%-------64,888,200,000
Note: The value is an estimation(that should be almost right) given that the only information given was the value of the market as an all and the percentage each franchise had of the market.
Information found here:
animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-08-14/20-most-valuable-character-brands-in-japan-2011
http://archive.foolz.us/a/thread/94790089/
http://bbs.ngacn.cc/read.php?tid=6297211&rand=622 |
actually that's not right, even though i was talking about manga alone . counting the others factors like ( spin offs), Novels(including light novels), DVD/BD and Sound. with sales world wide should be more than enough |
No they aren't enough. Unless AOT is mainstream in other places of the world and not just a niche. It is certainly not enough to surpass One Piece overall. Note, that One Piece presence in other places of the world isn't null. |
maybe isn't null, but isn't enough to compare to AoT, Naruto, sailor moon and many others
AoT is a world wide anime phenomena i don't know if this is what you call " niche " or not but it doesn't matter.
for a manga to surpass one piece in revenue and be a world wide hit ( which one piece never accomplished ) i think it's a great goal |
AoT is doing incredible, no, more than that, is doing amazingly.
AoT world wide phenomena is not has much as you might think though. First, America is not everything there is to it. In terms of manga France is the biggest manga market of the west and is being leaded by One Piece(Probably right now AOT is a rival in France, or maybe even surpassed.). France is a lot of times bigger than America right now(At the "golden time" of manga in America, when Naruto was appearing everywhere, America was similar to France, maybe even a little better, but not anymore), but even counting that the best comic in France only sells 250k per volume and One Piece there sells around 90k(note that in America Naruto sells only around 12k). That is basically nothing comparing with the 1.6M that each volume of AOT and the 3M that each volume of One Piece does in Japan.
About anime. Anime in America is still a niche in terms of DVD/BD and in terms of TV is even a bigger niche, I believe that only Adult Swim is popular in America and is a night block, only one day a week. I don't know how in other countries Anime is fairing but certainly aren't doing much better. Does AOT even have DVD/BD being sold in America or others places except Japan right now? I don't think so.
In terms of Merchandising is the same thing. The only Merchandising that I believe is "mainstream"/popular in other countries is Pokemon.
Outside Japan AOT is doing Amazing, but amazing in terms of the "niche" market that Manga and Anime are. Now, probably it could open a new "golden age" of manga and anime to america and other places of the world and go outside of the niche market. I don't think it will be able to do it, manga and anime is not that well seen in the world, majority of people think is a kid and/or nerd thing. In the end only time will tell.
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dandelion_rose
Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 657
Location: Kuala Lumpur
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:22 pm
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This thread is both very impressive and very sad. I doubt anyone arguing over the sales of OP vs. AoT earn a cent from them.
AoT is such a different story from OP, if its sales / distribution etc numbers can compete with OP that's pretty impressive imo. If not, well, it doesn't. OP is a different style of story that has a more all-ages appeal and has been around for ages.
If you want to include worldwide success, you need to consider iconic stuff like Doraemon that can sell merch even when the creator is dead and the series has ended for many years.
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pykrete
Joined: 24 Apr 2013
Posts: 145
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Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:49 pm
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^ There is no popular thing that doesn't get argued over, including how toilet paper should be positioned. 
I'd be a lot less skeptical about One Piece's pre-2008 performance had it not look like it was still dancing with Naruto in 2004.
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pykrete
Joined: 24 Apr 2013
Posts: 145
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Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:21 am
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The following is why I have to see sales figures first and not just rely on circulation numbers.
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http://www.jetro.go.jp/australia/market/index.html/publishing.pdf
The commission-sales system enables retailers, such as bookstores, to sell publications on consignment. In principle, all Japanese publications are sold under this system. Bookstores can
return unsold stock to publishers within a set period of time, and therefore minimize their inventory risk. This system, however, has led to the problem of massive returns.
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http://www.jbpa.or.jp/en/pdf/pdf01.pdf
Under Japan's consignment sales system, bookstores are free to return unsold book and magazine stock to their distributors within a specified period of time. The average rate of returns in recent years has reached nearly 39 percent.
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yukimasuka
Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 44
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Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 2:46 pm
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| pykrete wrote: | The following is why I have to see sales figures first and not just rely on circulation numbers.
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http://www.jetro.go.jp/australia/market/index.html/publishing.pdf
The commission-sales system enables retailers, such as bookstores, to sell publications on consignment. In principle, all Japanese publications are sold under this system. Bookstores can
return unsold stock to publishers within a set period of time, and therefore minimize their inventory risk. This system, however, has led to the problem of massive returns.
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| Quote: |
http://www.jbpa.or.jp/en/pdf/pdf01.pdf
Under Japan's consignment sales system, bookstores are free to return unsold book and magazine stock to their distributors within a specified period of time. The average rate of returns in recent years has reached nearly 39 percent.
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Those numbers are for an average manga. And we all know that one piece is not an average manga. The thing is one piece sells like hot pancakes. This is a fact with numerous sources to back up. The early volumes of one piece (especially vol 1) have over 100 reprints. If the older copies are not being sold, they would never have reprints, nonetheless 100 reprints. Remember when vol 1 sold ~500k a couple of years ago. Thus, shueisha is reprinting old vols.
It has only been a couple of years that one piece have 4.0 mil for 1st printing. This reduces the production cost for shueisha and they are confident that one piece will sell 4.0 million sooner or later. I don't think you can use those data for one piece.
Since shueisha only releases circulation numbers, we have to use those to predict. By the way, your sources are post-2008. We need data from pre-2008. The one from 2006 is for magazine circulation, not manga circulation.
Actually, there is a legit way to know if one piece had ever sold at least 10 mil per year pre-2008. All we need is someone, preferably Japanese, to ask @SASAKI_Hisashi on twitter. He used to be an editor and editor-in-chief of weekly shonen jump.
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yukimasuka
Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 44
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Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:11 pm
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^or someone can ask Greg @ochimusha108. He's a host on one piece podcast as well as a column writer for V-Jump, which belongs to Shueisha. He might have inside info about one piece sales pre-2008.
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pykrete
Joined: 24 Apr 2013
Posts: 145
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Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:01 pm
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^ The people who insist that One Piece must had sold (not printed) 10 million in a year pre-2008 should be the ones to ask.
Btw, even bestsellers can be over-printed. One Harry Potter book was overprinted 2 million copies. And it's actually the large-print gambles which end up with massive returns.
For example, there's speculation that when Shonen Jump had 6 million in a year, it was too optimistic, that's why in a year, it dropped to 4 million.
From my dig-thru publishing articles, 20% returns is excellent, but 35% to 40% is the industry average.
Publishers actually aim for 20% returns because at that ratio, it's assumed that every reader who wants a copy got one.
Also, that 80% to 60% not returned doesn't mean it's all sold.
So, if someone gives me a circulation number of 1 million, I'd use the following formula to guage its sold ratio.
1 million
less 20% returns (this means publisher hit target)
less 10% store shelf inventory (this is probably too optimistic)
So, 700k presumed sold
Then, to calculate with the Oricon and Nielsen numbers are, I'll deduct another 20%. So, 583.333k may be its registered sales.
And even then, I'm probably be too optimistic because in the publishing world, overestimating is more frequent than underestimating.
That's why I prefer sales data, and preferably sales data with circulation numbers. Not just circulation numbers, which according to sources are usually only 30% actually sold to the end consumer.
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