Forum - View topicAnswerman - Is The Anime Glut And The American TV Glut The Same Thing?
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Ushio
Posts: 630 |
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When the entertainment bubble pops it will be interesting.
Because not just the TV and anime are in bubble's there's the American superhero comic bubble, the video game bubble and the Hollywood film bubble. Why all these bubbles? well how much amateur youtube have you watched this week? how many websites do you check out each day? there are only 24 hours in a day and the population growth isn't happening in the rich nations. |
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Gasero
 Posts: 939 Location: USA |
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There is a media bubble in general. The amount of stuff available to consume is way more than millions of people are interested in consuming.
I still don't know how Comcast is able to sell people cable service with over 1000 channels (probably because of ESPN). |
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EricJ2
 Posts: 4016 |
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"Bubble" is becoming a trendy buzzword, but it's wildly misused by millennials to mean what used to be "Boom".
Something that's trendily gold-rushed and overproduced for the moment is a "Boom"-- But a "Bubble" is something that's dangerously over-invested-in, with its investors promising they've found the secret gold mine, thinking there's no point in investing in anything else, and booming more product saying that More is Richer, happily and delusionally ignoring the warnings of the fatal logical/industry flaw that could bring it crashing down tomorrow. And inevitably, due to circumstances beyond its control and a complete and utter lack of backup plans, does. Comic books in the 80's were a Bubble. Mortgage derivatives were a Bubble. The "Coyote Ragtime" licensing boom of the 00's was most definitely a Bubble. And I'm of the Cassandra opinion that "Digital will replace disk!" is the next Bubble, and I do mean "Bubble", not "Boom". Streaming-exclusive series, however, trying to be the New Cable, are only a Boom for the moment-- Until some network gets a little too overconfident that no show they ever make can go wrong after getting a little too happy over Transparent and Daredevil, and ignores the "Where's the money going to come from?" question, and then it can become a Bubble. Just have to wait for that Gold Rush fever to take over the brain. |
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Top Gun
 Posts: 4622 |
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I feel like a severe outlier in that I consume little to no streaming content (well outside of a few YouTube Let's Players anyway), don't have any Netflix or Hulu or whatever subscriptions, and still place a high priority on having cable TV. As Justin alludes, part of that is due to being a sports fan and wanting my fix of local teams on ESPN and the local Comcast affiliate. But another big part of it is that cable still gives me something that streaming can't really provide: immediacy and spontaneity. Hopping onto Netflix is great if you know ahead of time that there's a specific show you want to watch, or at least have a few choices in mind. But if you just want to crash on the couch and veg out for an hour or two? Not so much. I can flip to SportsCenter for a bit, or to Science to hopefully catch a How It's Made marathon, or to whatever movie FX is rerunning the hell out of this month, or whatever. I'm even somewhat wary about Verizon's bundling experiment, because I could see a certain bundle having that one random channel that I'll turn on occasionally to watch something fun, and I'd feel almost obligated to pay for it.
(Also I can't stand "binge-watching." The slow-burn agony of watching a great serialized show week to week is just too great to pass up.) |
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EricJ2
Posts: 4016 |
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Back in the days when broadcast TV united us all to watch a show at one time during the week, I can actually remember waiting an entire seven days to find out whether Fearless Fonzarelli managed to jump his bike over those garbage cans. 
We've had a generation that's made broadcast negligible--from missed-taping VCR's, to Tivo, to Blu-ray sets, to websites, to Netflix/Hulu--and even the networks now only air their shows as an obligation to sponsors, and then tell the viewers to find them online. HOW we watch them, OTOH, is a matter of personal character and discipline: Even when I catch up on a past season of shows, I like the old days, and save one night a week to hear my latest "chapter", as my regular Tuesday Night or Friday Night Thing. (I certainly don't have them on the free networks anymore.  )
Just because all the season episodes "there", all in front of us, doesn't mean we have to indulge, or that they're encouraging us to indulge, or that it's the new thing to do because everyone else is doing it. It's sort of the same situation as when we were five years old, and there was a whole cookie jar there, with Mom not around. (She said we could have one...) I flatter myself that I don't act like a five-yo. in the presence of cookies. |
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walw6pK4Alo
 Posts: 9322 |
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Wouldn't a bubble for anime just be more of a gradual step down of shows produced? It's not like the asset bubble of the early 90s which just hurt the economy overall, and wrecked the high budget OVA scene, we'd probably just see studios taking on fewer projects, or only really focus on things they want to push as guarantees. Even then, it's unlikely to stop your random shows like Death Parade or Aku no Hana because compared to live action TV that aren't sitcoms or other extremely low rent fair, anime is still stupid inexpensive per episode.
Instead of 30-40 late night otaku/fujoshi/otome/clearly-not-kid anime each season, it'd drop back down to 20-25? I think we're already seeing some of this pullback with the increased amount of shorts, and not throwaway garbage ones! You wouldn't necessarily get something with complexity and character building like Yama no Susume in 2006, and they managed to cram that all in to episodes that were only 3 minutes long in the first season, and 13 in the second (with full OP and ED, so more like 10 minutes of content). Same with Wakaba Girl from last season. I guess the downside to this is you'd lose overall variety, but it's all really based on what the market will continue to bear. I dunno, I just wanna see a scaled down seasonal output because I feel like I'm missing shows left and right because my plate is already too full (I'm not that picky when it comes to loading up each season). For example, I missed Tokyo Ghoul, Tokyo Ravens, Mahouka, Golden Time, Bokura wa Minna Kawaisou, White Album 2, Plastic Memories, Noragami, Nagi no Asukara, Parasyte, Yuuki Yuuna, and dozens of others over the last 1-2 years alone. All looked at least to be remotely in my wheelhouse; some of these may be shit, but I can never be sure until I watch them. This is on top of me loading up each season with usually 15-20 new series on top of continuations, so some shows just get left behind. Luckily I think I've mostly exhausted my 80s and 90s OVA and movie search, just with some stragglers left. But now we get more otakucentric shows each season than we used to entire years, or multiple years. Last edited by walw6pK4Alo on Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:34 am; edited 1 time in total |
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mangamuscle
Posts: 2658 Location: Mexico |
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I would not call it immediacy since streaming will provide your show the moment you want, not in an hour, a day or a week; neither I would call it spontaneity since you will not tune to TV Land and get some live news report (unless it is the end of the world). I do understand what you mean tough and that is what sooner or later TV channels will become, i.e. tune to TV land streaming and see two minutes previews of old series until one catches your attention enough to push the button to play a full episode, same for boomerang with old cartoons and TCM for old movies, then the channel saves what shows you like to offer similar shows next time you do not want to see anything specific. Netflix will never bother with old content, but any major studio has boatloads of old tv series and movies to offer, it is just a matter of hard disks getting big/cheap enough. The only niche streaming can't substitute is live video for sports, but debates, news feeds, etc. can be seen later no problem. They might never make as much revenue as the original cable channels, but that is still better than disappearing altogether. |
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yuna49
 Posts: 3804 |
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Without doing systematic research I'd say the diversity of anime narrowed considerably after the 2008 recession as producers limited their investments to shows with predictable returns. I found this especially true when it came to shows with adult characters and off-beat story lines. Shows from 2006-2008 like Black Lagoon, Baccano!, Oh! Edo Rocket, or Nodame Cantabile seemed less common in 2008-2012 in comparison to shows about adolescents. Now it seems the diversity of offerings has begun to increase again. Perhaps it reflects the flow of money into the industry from other entertainment sources that Justin describes. To take just one example, Shingeki no Bahamut Genesis is an advertisement for a mobile game, but the story has a largely adult cast. Here in the US, mobile gaming has attracted large numbers of casual gamers including women and older players. I wouldn't be surprised to learn the same is true for Japan. More fundamentally, anime producers must ultimately deal with the shrinking number of adolescents in Japanese society. The Japanese Census describes the country's "population pyramid" as shifting from a shape that in 1950 looked like Mt. Fuji, with a wide base of youngsters and a narrow summit of elderly, to today's "gourd" that is wider in the middle ages than at either end of the age spectrum. Expanding overseas through streaming might be one possible line of defense as the demographics of the market for anime in Japan itself shrinks. One other strategy would be to try and expand the market for anime in Japan by making more shows for mature audiences, but I don't see that as very likely. noitaminA tried that for years with mixed success. All I read indicates that the general public in Japan continue to have a fairly negative view of late-night anime and the people who watch it. This seems a bit surprising to me since you would think that a lot of people in the 25-49 demographic might have watched anime in their younger years and would be a ready audience for shows about adult life. What I read instead is that anime is abandoned as people age. Partly that's simply the result of the greater demands of work and family, but also apparently because it is seen as inappropriate for adults. For instance, I see few adaptations of genres like "salaryman manga," and anime based on josei works are still few and far between. We get the occasional Otona Joshi no Anime Time but they are rare and, in that case, short-lived. |
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Galap
Moderator
 Posts: 2354 |
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I'm not sure that anime is in a bubble. What evidence do we have that anime is being bought, sold, funded, produced, etc. above its inherent value?
To me it seems that the streaming world is putting a lot more into the system, and production is expanding to accommodate that. Since funi and crunchyroll subscriptions are on the rise, it seems like this situation is supported. Anime is a specialist market, and it's due to the advent of high speed internet that allows it to really hit its stride. Like Mangamuscle said, consumers' money is leaving cable and going into streaming. So I think anime is essentially on the receiving end of the benefit here. TV as it currently exists in the US is inherently doomed because of the existence of the internet, just like horse carts were doomed by the existence of petrol engines. Frankly I'm pretty surprised that network TV has managed to hold out as long as it has. A lot of people will lose their jobs when it dies, but the longer the situation is artificially maintained, the worse things will be when that happens. As an aside, I really don't like live action TV at all, or US TV for that matter. I can literally count on one hand the number of TV shows I've even liked: Star Trek in its various incarnations new Doctor Who Dead Like Me Firefly Yeah, I'm trying to think of others, but that's pretty much it haha. |
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jymmy
 Posts: 1244 |
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The "200" figure quoted is pretty much manageable, unless you insist on watching every episode of every show (I do do this, on top of a full-time job and at least as much of a social life as I would like, but I'm probably more dedicated than most to watching anime), especially with preview guides and such. Of course, everything simulcast is not everything subtitled, which is in turn not everything broadcast, which is in turn not everything you can see without access to every Japanese TV station, web service and OVA, etc, and there are always the super-long series which stick around for years, meaning there are twice as many anime actually in a year, not counting movies, specials, OVAs, etc.
I've never had a cable service; I went from free-to-air to a healthy combination of streaming services and pirated media similar to what most people I know have. |
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Paiprince
 Posts: 593 |
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So we went from having "too little" to choose from to having "too much." Funny how that works, but I guess it's human nature to never be truly content.
To chime in on this, it's not the lack of variety (totally untrue) that's the problem, but the frighteningly rising amount of shorts. The quality is all over the place. For every Yama no Susume and Danna you also get Pupa and Vampire Holmes. Not like this doesn't happen for full length series, but there's more room to produce the latter and get away with it. Both Japanese and overseas fans need to tread carefully especially since these shorts don't require much time investment thus can grant a greater viewership whether its hit or shit. Studios and committees do pay attention to view trends after all. Not much to say about US cable TV. I primarily only watch the news and those are mandatory on even the most simplest packages. If I want to watch any premium programming, I can pick the usual streaming networks so I can watch when, how and where I want it. The concept of traditional TV is truly going the way of the dinosaur. It's had a good run and I'll miss it, but nostalgia and orthodoxy can only keep it alive for so long. @yuna49 The whole "adult-centric anime on the decline" argument is so hard to take seriously when shows like Death Parade, PSYCHO-PASS, Gangsta and ServantxService come along every season. So no, there's no diminishing of those types of shows. It's been relatively the same output as it is from the past 2 decades. Also, they're not going away anytime soon so you can calm down. |
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fuuma_monou
 Posts: 1822 Location: Quezon City, Philippines |
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Isn't there a significant percentage of the U.S. that doesn't have access to broadband internet? |
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Galap
Moderator
Posts: 2354 |
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^Yes there is, but I doubt it's big enough to support the TV industry by itself.
Now that I think of it, broadband hasn't been around for that long, so now to me it makes sense that we're still in a transitional period. |
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Shadowrun20XX
 Posts: 1935 Location: Vegas |
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Anime glut? I just enjoy the idea that in one era the sky was falling, now we are currently drowning in anime?
I want to thank those that produce anime but can't survive doing so.
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Wandering Samurai
 Posts: 875 Location: USA |
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When TV started becoming junk, it pretty much was boring. But it took some people longer than others to figure it out. And now that enough people have figured it out and are not watching the shows, now the networks are in a bind. It's no wonder why I went to the internet for my entertainment.
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