Forum - View topic

NEWS: Japanese Groups: Blu-ray to Overtake DVD in 2013

IMO blu-ray penetration is "on schedule", way ahead of DVD-audio (or Super Audio CD) that never become a successful successor of the inferior Audio CD. People seem to forget it took several years for the videotape to become ubiquitous in the home market, and then it also took the DVD several years to substitute VHS (even tough the DVD had the advantage of lacking format wars like beta vs. VHS or blu-ray vs HD-DVD).

I do not trust the "cloud", i prefer to have my discs where no EMP or hacker attack can wipe my whole collection in a blink.

Resistance is futile, thou shall be assimilated.

"On schedule" as of when? There had been predictions that Blu-ray would overtake DVD in 2012.

Name dropping failed techs does not do your Blu-ray crusade here any good. If anything it just further illustrates the point that superior technology doesn't always replace existing tech when there is a format competition.

Well I wasn't referring to online file-sharing. I am using media servers and Terabyte HDs to backup most of my disc based media.

People aren't machines and don't tech hop when there is little to gain.

You do realize at this moment in history economical predictions are no different from weather predictions? But that does not change the fact that each passing day blu-ray penetration increases with each new blu-ray player sold (even if they buy it just to play their old dvds and rent a blu-ray now and then). I don't see any statistics about people ditching their blu-rays because "there are not enough titles" or "it was a letdown". So it is a matter of giving time its due.

Quite the opposite, I name said failed technologies with the certainity that they have no similarities to blu-ray acceptance. It might take longer for blu-ray to reign supreme, but that is only because this was a double change of standards, from SD to HD and from DVD to blu-ray, when people switched to DVD they did not had to buy a new screen.

Do you realize that hard disks have a life span and unlike video discs, when said hard disk fails you lose several titles, not just one.

People are machines, only their programs is written in DNA and not assembly.

Past wrote:

RyanSaotome wrote: Not to slight the non otaku fans, but they just aren't as into anime and its culture to pay those prices (as is often seen here with how much people complain about paying the Japanese prices for anime like Fate/Zero). Why don't people seem to get this? The amount someone spends on anime, or the size of their collection, is not a gauge of any sort of level of fandom or being "into it." Period.

Would you eat nothing but instant ramen and sacrifice going out just to be able to afford the new great anime? If not, then you can't argue you care about anime as much as the biggest otaku out there. They live and breath anime, and have their entire rooms dedicated to their hobby.

Spending money and time is one of the most significant ways to tell how much someone is into a hobby. I'm not going to try to say I'm a bigger NBA fan then someone else who watches every single game at the same time using a league pass. I only watch a couple games a week, so I'm not at that same kind of fandom.

Quote:

Do you realize that hard disks have a life span and unlike video discs, when said hard disk fails you lose several titles, not just one.

I realize that HDs have life spans that are unlike video discs, which why my HDs are the backup to my physical discs. Physical damage aside, I have yet to out live any of my Terabyte HDs or physical discs.

But saying it's going to rain in May isn't a forecast or prediction.

The predictions about Blu-ray overtaking DVD in 2012 were wrong.

Those tech were technologically superior to the media they sought to replace,

I have yet to out live any of my Terabyte HDs or physical discs.

Quote:

People are machines, only their programs is written in DNA and not assembly.

Which makes us machine-like by design but our individual tastes and bases make our thoughts more irrational than any proper chunk of code.

Relying on a single storage medium for the long term is foolhardy. The key is some sort of backup for everything. Which brings me to the question are BD's relatively resistant to disc rot anymore than DVDs? If so has it been documented or proven?

With current technology that is just nonsense, nobody predicts rainy days three months before the day.

Whether Blu-ray overtakes DVD in 2012 is yet to be seen, failed past predictions do not change the trend of increasing market assimilation.

I think they were not, DVD-audio was heavily (even more than DVD-video) copy-protected (in an era people are used to ripping their CDs) and SACD offered 1-bit audio (which needed conversion to use with modern equipment and software).

You will, unless your lifespan is really short.

The irrationality that you assumes makes us different from machines can and will be understood in the next 20 years as DNA is decoded andunderstood. A faulty windows installation is just as irrational as a human and then some.