Forum - View topicAnswerman - How Is This Bubble Different From The Last One?
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walw6pK4Alo
 Posts: 9322 |
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Even with fewer shows being made each season, that's like going from 40 shows a season to 35. The concern cannot be that immense.
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brankoburcksen
Posts: 126 |
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Thanks for the info, Justin. I really appreciate it.
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Hameyadea
 Posts: 3679 |
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But aren't there quite a few shows like that practically every Airing Season? So if the revenue methods will dry up, all that will survive the economic post-apocalypse would be the LN-adapted, harem-centric, high-school protagonist shows? Geez... |
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maximilianjenus
Posts: 2862 |
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yeah, that's what he said, just check bd sales number, the kind of show that always sells over 4k would be the only one to survive+ the kiddie shows.
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WashuTakahashi
 Posts: 415 Location: Chicago, IL |
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Still mourning the loss of Sam Goody and Suncoast. Though I did manage to get quite a few anime super cheap when they went down.
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Rederoin
 Posts: 1427 Location: Europa |
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I don't think a genre always selling over 4k exists. Last edited by Rederoin on Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:26 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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EricJ2
 Posts: 4016 |
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That's the cigar-answer: "Why isn't Now like Then?"--Because back Then, we HAD to buy them. ("Streaming" was called "Bootleg fansubs", it was illegal and underground--just like Crunchyroll--and good anime fans considered you a bad person for watching them.) Which, as the article says, meant that a retailer had to sell them, as Suncoast and MediaPlay were folding, and Amazon was just starting to replace Target and Best Buy as the place to buy your DVD's. The Bubble popped because: A) In their rush to license any new shows they could grab, companies were outbidding to license, dub, and try to sell fresh new-season shows that would normally simulcast on CR for us to try out and weed out the chaff first. (Imagine if you were the US company that had to sell Monster Musume Girls just based on the current TV ratings and funny description, without getting a look at the darn thing or sampling Internet fan word of mouth on it first...That pretty much sums up Funi trying to sell Shuffle), and B) To pay for the dubs, companies were staggering them out in 3-4 episode singles at $29.95 each--and savvy ADV fans knew that the Complete boxset would double-dip anyway at the end if they waited--which prompted BB's historic snarky balk at having to sell unmovable overpriced singles of, quote, "Anime with 'Princess' in the title". (Referring to ADV's 3-ep. singles of Princess Nine, Princess Tutu, and Petite Princess Yucie, which looked hideously cutesy on the cover if you were a mainstream non-fan who didn't know what the heck the shows were about.) It popped because anime companies thought they could talk us into buying unknown quantities; now that streaming is the official medium, there ARE no "Unknown" series for Funimation, Sentai or Media Blasters to sell. They make their physical product for those who know what they're getting, and hope the word spreads. |
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Angel M Cazares
 Posts: 5420 Location: Iscandar |
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I am glad to hear Justin sound this optimistic on what might happen when the current anime bubble bursts. On a recent column he gave a much grimmer opinion.
I think people who get to worried about the current bubble fail to notice that things are different now. And I want to believe that companies in both sides of the pacific have some sort contingency plans. |
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halo
Posts: 356 |
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At least this time North American companies have more realistic numbers of viewers from streaming services rather than judging a shows marketability from the number of bittorrent peers.
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Hoppy800
 Posts: 3331 |
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The industry might be fine however, the bulk of the good health of the industry at least in the late night sphere is on the idol/music genre, if bad idol anime like Venus Project Climax start to appear left and right, it's in trouble.
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Hameyadea
Posts: 3679 |
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Venus Project -Climax- is a bit of an oddball; the next, proper anime episode isn't due until August 16th (IIRC), with the rest of the air dates (August 2nd, 9th, for example) are variety shows with the seiyū from the anime and for the game forming teams and battling each other. At the very least, it feels like the producers tried to experiment something new with the format. |
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AJ (LordNikon)
 Posts: 503 Location: Kyoto |
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Personally, I do not think we are in a bubble at all, nor do I see this as the third golden age of anime. The industry today feels a lot more like it did in 80's/90's. Fandom overall within North America is greatly down compared to ten years ago. But, I can see a market collapse for both North America and to a much lesser extant, Japan (Sorry, I wont speculate to the conditions of the UK, Oz or other markets).
While the content delivery methods have changed, the biggest difference now is hat the stream model is much more tangible of the demographic that it is aimed at. The burst we had a while back was squarely caused by a market over-saturation aimed at a target demographic with extremely limited spending power. Those in the industry can scream bloody-murder and point the finger all they want at the fan-subbers, but the reality was there was too much stuff being pumped out way too fast and the majority of the fan base just couldn't keep up. I'm sure a lot of fans did jump over to fan-subs, but that was just the realities of market craze, fan burn out, and literally having too much new content thrown down one's own throat. The biggest area of concern I can see in outside of the Japanese markets for anime will be too many different content delivery systems, all simulcasting different shows. While having a Crunchyroll account doesn't cost much, add in needing a Hulu, and a Netflix account to the fray, plus the Broadband access, the cost of streaming may come close to or exceed what one was spending on tangible products a decade ago. I'm already find that series I watched on the stream five or six years ago on Hulu or Netflix for example are no longer available, and even the hosting sites of ones I want that are fan-subbed are gone. This brings value to buying DVD/BD, but how many people paying the costs of a stream provider AND a physical copy? Not many, expect for a handful of personally favorite series. Again, I won't say we are in a bubble, but will stipulate that we could enter one again, but fandom needs a big up tick before that can happen. |
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MarshalBanana
 Posts: 5309 |
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I fount that strange too, the message that keeps getting thrown around, is that "apparently" most Anime is made for Otaku, now we are being told that we could go back to that, didn't something happen? |
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walw6pK4Alo
Posts: 9322 |
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To AJ's point about fansubbing, if the industry had another collapse, they wouldn't have a convenient scapegoat in fansubbing anymore. Maybe illegal stream sites?, but that's really pushing it when you have so many legal and free options. But you can't blame those users as causing a potential loss in physical sales, but more like the potential loss in infinitesimal ad revenue from CR.
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Mr. Oshawott
 Posts: 6773 |
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I think the anime industry today is faring better than it did in the 1980's/1990's. With so many shows coming out every season, I don't think the customers will be affected much if the appearance rate of new shows suffers a slight drop every now and then.
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