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NEWS: Japan Lifts COVID-19 State of Emergency Nationwide




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ErikaD.D



Joined: 09 Jun 2019
Posts: 332
PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 6:26 am Reply with quote
And this won't end well...
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ximpalullaorg



Joined: 16 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:08 am Reply with quote
ErikaD.D wrote:
And this won't end well...


Why? Aside the fact the virus didn't reach hospitals (likely, the real cause the death toll isn't very high - see also the report by Bloomberg), the ongoing research on the virus suggests that infectivity doesn't last as long as the news said (see for example: https://www.ams.edu.sg/view-pdf.aspx?file=media%5c5556_fi_331.pdf&ofile=Period+of+Infectivity+Position+Statement+(final)+23-5-20+(logos).pdf or the Nature article regarding a similar research done in Germany), that children and boys/girls aren't strongly susceptible to infection and to transmission (there is building evidence, for example the research done in Australia)....
Not to mention the better medical/pharmacological treatment (redemisvir, antiviral "cocktail", heparine, plus the ongoing trials for hyperimmune plasma, for example) due to the increasing knowledge about the virus and its mechanisms.
The need for a "strong" lockdown right now isn't really based off any real data (and no, the Imperial College model isn't totally reliable - it failed to predict what happened in Sweden).
There's need of vigilance of course.
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Hoppy800



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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 10:56 am Reply with quote
Hopefully, anime can slowly be resumed now.
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Kougeru



Joined: 13 May 2008
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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 11:39 am Reply with quote
ximpalullaorg wrote:
ErikaD.D wrote:
And this won't end well...


Why? Aside the fact the virus didn't reach hospitals (likely, the real cause the death toll isn't very high - see also the report by Bloomberg), the ongoing research on the virus suggests that infectivity doesn't last as long as the news said (see for example: https://www.ams.edu.sg/view-pdf.aspx?file=media%5c5556_fi_331.pdf&ofile=Period+of+Infectivity+Position+Statement+(final)+23-5-20+(logos).pdf or the Nature article regarding a similar research done in Germany), that children and boys/girls aren't strongly susceptible to infection and to transmission (there is building evidence, for example the research done in Australia)....
Not to mention the better medical/pharmacological treatment (redemisvir, antiviral "cocktail", heparine, plus the ongoing trials for hyperimmune plasma, for example) due to the increasing knowledge about the virus and its mechanisms.
The need for a "strong" lockdown right now isn't really based off any real data (and no, the Imperial College model isn't totally reliable - it failed to predict what happened in Sweden).
There's need of vigilance of course.


This is blatant misinformation. the infection length seems true, as does redemisvir, but everything else is bad data. Children DO spread the virus, and recent "Kawasaki-like" illnesses have been happening around the world because of COVID-19. There is no "building evidence" about children not spreading it. It's pure BS. Sweden is one of the worst in it's areas right now because of what they did. Tons of people are dying that should not have died. Imperial College model WAS reliable. People just ignore what models are. It was based if we did nothing. A LOT of Swedish citizens tried to stay home which makes their "Experiment" a bit misleading but still proves their idea failed since even though people tried to stay home they ended up worse than most others.

If we just stick to PROVEN data we got

1. Redemisvir is helpful taken fairly early (which makes it almost worthless in some countries like the US where you can only get tested if you're already showing bad signs)

2. Sweden is doing terrible



All that said, Japan's cases have supposedly fallen like a rock. I don't disagree with them re-opening if their data is accurate. I do have issues with them re-opening crowded events like concerts and such, though. There WILL Be spikes in cases because of that. There WILL be more shut downs in the future if they don't end up closing large events.
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omiya



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 1592
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 12:26 pm Reply with quote
ximpalullaorg wrote:
Why? Aside the fact the virus didn't reach hospitals


Quote:
Over 40 percent of the coronavirus-linked deaths in Osaka involve hospital infections, sources in the prefectural government told Jiji Press on Saturday.
A total of 35 COVID-19 patients have died at five medical institutions in Osaka.


http://www.newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/127264.php

Quote:
18 trainee doctors in Tokyo who ignored dining ban infected with coronavirus


https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200407/p2g/00m/0na/017000c

Quote:
Yokohama med trainees dined in groups before testing positive for coronavirus


https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200406/p2a/00m/0na/010000c
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FiendHunter



Joined: 02 Dec 2019
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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 1:07 pm Reply with quote
What has Japan done right that the rest of the world hasn't? Because they declared State of Emergency much much later than every other country and they're now lifting it way earlier. What's happening...??
It might just be my paranoia, but I feel like it's too soon for some stuff like events and such.
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ximpalullaorg



Joined: 16 Jan 2007
Posts: 299
PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 2:10 pm Reply with quote
Kougeru wrote:


This is blatant misinformation. the infection length seems true, as does redemisvir, but everything else is bad data. Children DO spread the virus, and recent "Kawasaki-like" illnesses have been happening around the world because of COVID-19.


Except there are cases but it's not the standard. The research on school made in Australia shows evidence that children and young boys/girls do not contribute a lot to the spread of the infection.

See also: https://adc.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/19/archdischild-2020-319474

and a few the comments of said article:

Quote:
The media highlight of a possible rare new Kawasaki-like vasculitis that may or may not be due to SARS-CoV2 does not change the fact that severe COVID-19 is as rare as many other serious infection syndromes in children that do not cause schools to be closed. Individualised risk assessment and decision-making by clinicians should occur for those considered at exceptional risk (such as in immediately after bone marrow transplant) or where there are other older family members at significant risk.

Evidence is therefore emerging that children could be significantly less likely to become infected than adults.



Quote:
Sweden is one of the worst in it's areas right now because of what they did. Tons of people are dying that should not have died.


Most of the deaths come from nursing care homes. Not from "normal" people. I personally feel that Sweden was extreme in the decision (and I don't agree with it), but closing off isn't the only option.
Italy had one of the strictest lockdown in Europe, and helped nothing (and the upcoming economic crisis will kill far more people than the virus). The virus got into hospitals and nursing care houses and that was the reason the death toll is so high.

Quote:
Imperial College model WAS reliable. People just ignore what models are.


It's not reliable. There's no way I can test it. Statistical models are good up to a certain point. There's no evidence to tell me it's right or not.
And I want to be able to criticize it. Especially since the Imperial College was wrong several times in their prediction in the past (see: mad cow disease, foot and mouth disease).

Quote:
There WILL Be spikes in cases because of that. There WILL be more shut downs in the future if they don't end up closing large events.


Even if it happens, the shutdowns aren't sustainable. Especially for a country like Japan which never got out of recession.

Quote:
Over 40 percent of the coronavirus-linked deaths in Osaka involve hospital infections, sources in the prefectural government told Jiji Press on Saturday.
A total of 35 COVID-19 patients have died at five medical institutions in Osaka.


As a tragedy as it is, this not what I meant. If you look at New York or Italy you see the bulk of infections come from hospitals or nursing care. In Italy the 80% of the infections came from there.
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xxmsxx



Joined: 06 Sep 2017
Posts: 19
PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 3:41 pm Reply with quote
Hokkaido will need to get ready for Hokkaido outbreak 3.0.

The rest of the country will need to get ready for Hokkaido outbreak 2.0.

Given that many Japanese still ferociously defend their "limit testing" approach, I guess there is not much to do but to open up the economy and wait for the next outbreak.
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#sukkar



Joined: 19 Nov 2014
Posts: 104
PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 7:57 pm Reply with quote
FiendHunter wrote:
What has Japan done right that the rest of the world hasn't? Because they declared State of Emergency much much later than every other country and they're now lifting it way earlier. What's happening...??
It might just be my paranoia, but I feel like it's too soon for some stuff like events and such.


There are some theories that Japan did a better job at cluster tracing than other countries did. IIRC, they were also the first major Asian country to shut down schools, so that probably contributed as well.

That said, Abe did mention the possibility of a second state of emergency should cases begin to rise again. It's still very difficult to get a test in Japan, you need to be all but on your deathbed at times, but I do imagine cases will begin to spike if we get as far as Phase 3.
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CrowLia



Joined: 24 Feb 2012
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Location: Mexico
PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 9:48 pm Reply with quote
FiendHunter wrote:
What has Japan done right that the rest of the world hasn't?


Nothing. Japan has literally done nothing that the rest of the world hasn't, and what they've done (lockdowns, testing) has been in smaller scale. Which is why I don't think anyone in their right mind actually believes the numbers are as low as the government claims. Let's just hope the general population doesn't end up paying the price of Abe's political ambitions.
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johan.eriksson.9003



Joined: 27 Oct 2014
Posts: 226
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2020 7:10 am Reply with quote
ximpalullaorg wrote:


Most of the deaths come from nursing care homes. Not from "normal" people. I personally feel that Sweden was extreme in the decision (and I don't agree with it), but closing off isn't the only option.
Italy had one of the strictest lockdown in Europe, and helped nothing (and the upcoming economic crisis will kill far more people than the virus). The virus got into hospitals and nursing care houses and that was the reason the death toll is so high.


I mean, this just suggests that the reason it got into nursing homes and hospitals is because our measures were inadequate. If we had followed the lead of our neighbours and locked down hard from the start it would have been much harder for it to spread that far and our total deth-toll would probably only be a couple hundred instad of a couple thousand.
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FLCLGainax



Joined: 10 May 2010
Posts: 638
Location: Land of the Free
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2020 10:21 am Reply with quote
A roadmap is always a good thing. Economies need to reopen sooner or later, otherwise the labor market could experience undesirable effects in the long run. Japan has already fallen back into a recession, like the US, so reopening with temporary restrictions makes sense.
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